Finite-History Outage Certification for Partially Observed Fluid Antenna Receivers
Abstract
Fluid antenna receivers can select a service position from partial port observations, but finite historical data leave uncertainty in the covariance used for that decision. We develop deployment-before-use reliability certification for a frozen partial-observation rule. A proper predictive density defines a history-based parameter region. Gaussian covariance envelopes, shared conditional-probability bounds and selector enclosures provide simultaneous risk bounds over continuous parameters and discontinuous port decisions. Separate history-coverage and integration budgets limit erroneous positive certification to 0.05 for a single qualification procedure under the stated stationary model and numerical assumptions. Confidence-set inclusion allows a new independent history to reuse the risk computation with the rule unchanged. In a structured Gaussian example with 32 candidate positions, five noisy probes and target outage 0.001, all 282 risk groups are qualified; the largest upper bound is 0.000999748. A separate coupled comparison gives a current-rule outage interval of [7.6820,9.1266]×10−4 and resolves lower outage than two observed-port controls using the same historical fit. One independently recalibrated history reuses the certificate without additional risk sampling. Unresolved and adverse-member controls delimit this reuse.
Related
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BibTeX
@misc{shen2026finitehistory,
title = {{Finite-History Outage Certification for Partially Observed Fluid Antenna Receivers}},
author = {Yuanjun Shen},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.21252},
eprint = {2610.21252},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.21252},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Finite-History Outage Certification for Partially Observed Fluid Antenna Receivers
AU - Yuanjun Shen
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/15
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.21252
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.21252
AB - Fluid antenna receivers can select a service position from partial port observations, but finite historical data leave uncertainty in the covariance used for that decision. We develop deployment-before-use reliability certification for a frozen partial-observation rule. A proper predictive density defines a history-based parameter region. Gaussian covariance envelopes, shared conditional-probability bounds and selector enclosures provide simultaneous risk bounds over continuous parameters and discontinuous port decisions. Separate history-coverage and integration budgets limit erroneous positive certification to 0.05 for a single qualification procedure under the stated stationary model and numerical assumptions. Confidence-set inclusion allows a new independent history to reuse the risk computation with the rule unchanged. In a structured Gaussian example with 32 candidate positions, five noisy probes and target outage 0.001, all 282 risk groups are qualified; the largest upper bound is 0.000999748. A separate coupled comparison gives a current-rule outage interval of [7.6820,9.1266]×10^−4 and resolves lower outage than two observed-port controls using the same historical fit. One independently recalibrated history reuses the certificate without additional risk sampling. Unresolved and adverse-member controls delimit this reuse.
ER -