Spatio-temporal analysis of violence notifications among the transgender population in Brazil (2015–2023)
- 1Ribeirão Preto College of Nursing, University of São Paulo
- 2Federal Technological University of Paraná
- 3NOVA National School of Public Health, Public Health Research Centre, Comprehensive Health Research Center, CHRC, REAL, CCAL, NOVA University Lisbon
Abstract
To analyze notifications of violence involving the transgender population in Brazil between 2015 and 2023 from a spatio-temporal perspective, characterizing victim profiles and the types of violence perpetrated. An observational ecological study with a spatio-temporal analysis based on notifications from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN), aggregated by Federated Units and for Brazil as a whole. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling (Poisson regression) with spatial and temporal random effects was performed via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA) to estimate relative risks across Federated Units. There were 45,715 recorded notifications. Victims were predominantly transgender women (65.3%), heterosexual (53.2%), young adults (36.1%), mixed-race/parda (44.6%), and individuals with low educational attainment (23.6%). Physical violence was the primary form (65.9%). While the fully adjusted annual relative risks clustered close to unity, indicating that regional variations are structurally captured by the baseline spatial risk and the national temporal trend, the higher concentration of rates in the South and Southeast macro-regions demonstrates that the distribution of violence is structurally driven rather than random. Violence against transgender people in Brazil exhibits structured spatio-temporal patterns linked to persistent social vulnerability and discrimination. These findings highlight the urgency of strengthening health surveillance and implementing targeted intersectoral policies, particularly across education, employment, and public security, to protect the most vulnerable profiles, notably young transgender women with low educational attainment.
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BibTeX
@article{leal2026spatiotemporal,
title = {{Spatio-temporal analysis of violence notifications among the transgender population in Brazil (2015–2023)}},
author = {Gilberto da Cruz Leal and José Nildo de Barros Silva Júnior and Elisângela Aparecida da Silva Lizzi and Quézia Rosa Ferreira and Ana Kamylla Amorim Saraiva de Carvalho and Lícia Kellen de Almeida Andrade and Jaqueline Garcia de Almeida Ballestero and Inês Fronteira and Pedro Fredemir Palha},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
year = {2026},
month = jul,
doi = {10.1038/s41598-026-61941-5},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-61941-5},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Spatio-temporal analysis of violence notifications among the transgender population in Brazil (2015–2023)
AU - Gilberto da Cruz Leal
AU - José Nildo de Barros Silva Júnior
AU - Elisângela Aparecida da Silva Lizzi
AU - Quézia Rosa Ferreira
AU - Ana Kamylla Amorim Saraiva de Carvalho
AU - Lícia Kellen de Almeida Andrade
AU - Jaqueline Garcia de Almeida Ballestero
AU - Inês Fronteira
AU - Pedro Fredemir Palha
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/07/01
JO - Scientific Reports
DO - 10.1038/s41598-026-61941-5
UR - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-61941-5
AB - To analyze notifications of violence involving the transgender population in Brazil between 2015 and 2023 from a spatio-temporal perspective, characterizing victim profiles and the types of violence perpetrated. An observational ecological study with a spatio-temporal analysis based on notifications from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN), aggregated by Federated Units and for Brazil as a whole. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling (Poisson regression) with spatial and temporal random effects was performed via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA) to estimate relative risks across Federated Units. There were 45,715 recorded notifications. Victims were predominantly transgender women (65.3%), heterosexual (53.2%), young adults (36.1%), mixed-race/parda (44.6%), and individuals with low educational attainment (23.6%). Physical violence was the primary form (65.9%). While the fully adjusted annual relative risks clustered close to unity, indicating that regional variations are structurally captured by the baseline spatial risk and the national temporal trend, the higher concentration of rates in the South and Southeast macro-regions demonstrates that the distribution of violence is structurally driven rather than random. Violence against transgender people in Brazil exhibits structured spatio-temporal patterns linked to persistent social vulnerability and discrimination. These findings highlight the urgency of strengthening health surveillance and implementing targeted intersectoral policies, particularly across education, employment, and public security, to protect the most vulnerable profiles, notably young transgender women with low educational attainment.
SN - 2045-2322
ER -