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Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Ecology and Evolution

Do Abies religiosa Seedlings That Survived Hot/Dry Range‐Edge Conditions Exhibit Genetic Evidence of Selection?

  • Yinyue Du1
  • Emily V. Moran1
  • Ruli Zhang2
  • Ana Laura Cruzado‐Vargas3,4
  • Cuauhtémoc Sáenz‐Romero5,6
6 affiliations
  1. 1Department of Life and Environmental Sciences University of California, Merced Merced California USA
  2. 2College of Forestry Southwest Forestry University Kunming China
  3. 3Instituto de Investigaciones Agropecuarias y Forestales Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo (UMSNH) Morelia Michoacán México
  4. 4Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) Morelia Michoacán México
  5. 5Instituto de Investigaciones Sobre los Recursos Naturales UMSNH Morelia Michoacán México
  6. 6Laboratorio Nacional de Biología del Cambio Climático (LaNBioCC), Secretaría de Ciencia, Humanidades Tecnología e Innovación (SECIHTI), Instituto de Biología, UNAM Ciudad de México Mexico
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Abstract

Sacred fir ( Abies religiosa) is the only roosting tree for monarch butterfly populations overwintering in Mexico, but its geographic range is expected to shrink due to climate change. A common garden experiment carried out 2019–2022 showed high seedling survival at 3400 and 3000 m, but only 6% survival at 2600 m (representing possible warmer and drier future conditions). We tested whether these survivors were genetically different from the starting population (represented by the seedlings from high‐survival gardens) using PCAdapt. We also conducted a Genotype‐Environment Association (GEA) test using climate information from source populations to identify SNP variants associated with climate gradients. PCAdapt identified 2202 outlier SNPs whose allele frequencies may have been impacted by selection. LFMM ₂ identified 33 SNPs associated with 5 source population climate gradients, especially winter precipitation. Minor allele frequencies (MAF) in both categories showed more fluctuation in survivors. This suggests that local climate conditions may select for genetic differences in Abies religiosa on short as well as long timescales, but fully understanding these responses requires more complete genome or transcriptome data, as well as validation by further field tests.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{du2026abies,
  title = {{Do Abies religiosa Seedlings That Survived Hot/Dry Range‐Edge Conditions Exhibit Genetic Evidence of Selection?}},
  author = {Yinyue Du and Emily V. Moran and Ruli Zhang and Ana Laura Cruzado‐Vargas and Cuauhtémoc Sáenz‐Romero},
  journal = {Ecology and Evolution},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1002/ece3.74455},
  url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.74455},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Do Abies religiosa Seedlings That Survived Hot/Dry Range‐Edge Conditions Exhibit Genetic Evidence of Selection?
AU  - Yinyue Du
AU  - Emily V. Moran
AU  - Ruli Zhang
AU  - Ana Laura Cruzado‐Vargas
AU  - Cuauhtémoc Sáenz‐Romero
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/20
JO  - Ecology and Evolution
DO  - 10.1002/ece3.74455
UR  - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.74455
AB  - Sacred fir ( Abies religiosa) is the only roosting tree for monarch butterfly populations overwintering in Mexico, but its geographic range is expected to shrink due to climate change. A common garden experiment carried out 2019–2022 showed high seedling survival at 3400 and 3000 m, but only 6% survival at 2600 m (representing possible warmer and drier future conditions). We tested whether these survivors were genetically different from the starting population (represented by the seedlings from high‐survival gardens) using PCAdapt. We also conducted a Genotype‐Environment Association (GEA) test using climate information from source populations to identify SNP variants associated with climate gradients. PCAdapt identified 2202 outlier SNPs whose allele frequencies may have been impacted by selection. LFMM ₂ identified 33 SNPs associated with 5 source population climate gradients, especially winter precipitation. Minor allele frequencies (MAF) in both categories showed more fluctuation in survivors. This suggests that local climate conditions may select for genetic differences in Abies religiosa on short as well as long timescales, but fully understanding these responses requires more complete genome or transcriptome data, as well as validation by further field tests.
SN  - 2045-7758
SN  - 2045-7758
ER  -