Compound indicators for vulnerable ecosystems (CIVE v1.0) framework
4 affiliations
- 1Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
- 2Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA; Corresponding author at: Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA.
- 3Department of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
- 4Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA
Abstract
Terrestrial ecosystem risk is shaped by compound extremes that monthly indices can miss. We introduce the Compound Indicators for Vulnerable Ecosystems (CIVE), an 8-day, 0.125-degree framework separating hazard exposure from ecosystem vulnerability across the conterminous United States during 2000–2024. Fixed NLDAS-2 thresholds define a five-hazard catalogue. A target-year-excluded Dynamic-local reference built from up to ten nearest eligible non-hazard years defines expected GOSIF GPP. Exposure combines normalized event frequency and duration; vulnerability integrates impact magnitude, response time, recovery time, and relative resilience; risk is their geometric mean on joint support. GOSIF tracks 8-day AmeriFlux GPP ( r = 0.83, n = 8924), and event-scale losses agree between tower and grid estimates ( r = 0.78, n = 12). Across 25 annual records, national EI, VI, and RI average 0.023, 0.086, and 0.037. Their Sen slopes are +0.0024, −0.0018, and − 0.0002 decade −1 (Hamed–Rao p = 0.306, 0.870, and 0.981), providing no evidence of national trends. Sixteen overlapping 10-year windows show a modest positive EI direction and negative VI and RI directions, but these diagnostics are not independent because adjacent windows share nine years. Spatial contrasts persist: heatwave vulnerability and risk center on the Southwest and Southern Great Plains, flash-drought impacts extend through the Plains and upper Midwest, and cold-wave vulnerability is restricted to winter-active warm margins. Fixed-reference and alternative-window analyses show that temporal direction depends on method. CIVE supports hazard-specific spatial diagnosis, while national VI and RI trends remain unresolved.
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BibTeX
@article{hao2026compound,
title = {{Compound indicators for vulnerable ecosystems (CIVE v1.0) framework}},
author = {Yuefeng Hao and Jiafu Mao and Anping Chen and Matthew Craig and Mingzhou Jin and Daniel M. Ricciuto and Xiaoying Shi and Anthony P. Walker and Yaoping Wang},
journal = {Ecological Indicators},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115769},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115769},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Compound indicators for vulnerable ecosystems (CIVE v1.0) framework
AU - Yuefeng Hao
AU - Jiafu Mao
AU - Anping Chen
AU - Matthew Craig
AU - Mingzhou Jin
AU - Daniel M. Ricciuto
AU - Xiaoying Shi
AU - Anthony P. Walker
AU - Yaoping Wang
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/30
JO - Ecological Indicators
DO - 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115769
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115769
AB - Terrestrial ecosystem risk is shaped by compound extremes that monthly indices can miss. We introduce the Compound Indicators for Vulnerable Ecosystems (CIVE), an 8-day, 0.125-degree framework separating hazard exposure from ecosystem vulnerability across the conterminous United States during 2000–2024. Fixed NLDAS-2 thresholds define a five-hazard catalogue. A target-year-excluded Dynamic-local reference built from up to ten nearest eligible non-hazard years defines expected GOSIF GPP. Exposure combines normalized event frequency and duration; vulnerability integrates impact magnitude, response time, recovery time, and relative resilience; risk is their geometric mean on joint support. GOSIF tracks 8-day AmeriFlux GPP ( r = 0.83, n = 8924), and event-scale losses agree between tower and grid estimates ( r = 0.78, n = 12). Across 25 annual records, national EI, VI, and RI average 0.023, 0.086, and 0.037. Their Sen slopes are +0.0024, −0.0018, and − 0.0002 decade −1 (Hamed–Rao p = 0.306, 0.870, and 0.981), providing no evidence of national trends. Sixteen overlapping 10-year windows show a modest positive EI direction and negative VI and RI directions, but these diagnostics are not independent because adjacent windows share nine years. Spatial contrasts persist: heatwave vulnerability and risk center on the Southwest and Southern Great Plains, flash-drought impacts extend through the Plains and upper Midwest, and cold-wave vulnerability is restricted to winter-active warm margins. Fixed-reference and alternative-window analyses show that temporal direction depends on method. CIVE supports hazard-specific spatial diagnosis, while national VI and RI trends remain unresolved.
SN - 1470-160X
SN - 1872-7034
ER -