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Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Environmental Science & Technology

Modeled Groundwater Decline is Associated with Lower Arsenic Concentrations in Hanoi

  • David Haaf1,2
  • Michael McGlade1,2
  • Athena A. Nghiem1,2,3
  • Duyen Thi Vu4
  • Tobias Steinert1,2
  • Viet Hung Pham4
  • Linh Khanh Bui5
  • Thanh Ngoc Tong6
  • Duong Du Bui5
  • Andrea Stenke1,2
  • Michael Berg1
  • Lenny H. E. Winkel1,2
6 affiliations
  1. 1Department of Water Resources and Drinking Water, Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dubendorf 8600, Switzerland
  2. 2Department of Environmental Systems Science (D-USYS), Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zurich, Zurich 8092, Switzerland
  3. 3Department of Geoscience, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, United States
  4. 4Key Laboratory of Analytical Technology for Environmental Quality and Food Safety Control (KLATEFOS), VNU University of Science, Hanoi 11417, Vietnam
  5. 5National Center for Water Resources Planning and Investigation (NAWAPI), Water Research Institute, Hanoi 10000, Vietnam
  6. 6Vietnam Water and Environment Association, Hanoi 11307, Vietnam
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Abstract

Elevated arsenic concentrations in groundwater pose health risks. Geogenic arsenic contamination is driven by biogeochemical mobilization and groundwater dynamics. Intensive pumping can initially exacerbate contamination by drawing arsenic or mobilizing organic matter into aquifers, but over longer time scales may also promote dilution and flushing in some settings. To better understand the mechanisms controlling arsenic concentrations, we examined changes over two decades in Hanoi (Vietnam), a hotspot of geogenic arsenic contamination and groundwater pumping. Arsenic concentrations from 470 wells sampled in the year 2000 were compared with 434 wells sampled in the same area in 2013 and 2023. Median concentrations declined from 14 to 8 μg/L between 2000 and 2023, while mean concentrations and the proportion of high-arsenic wells (>100 μg/L) remained similar. Using hydrochemical and groundwater-level data, CatBoost models combined with SHAP analysis assessed changes in predictor importance. In 2000, arsenic was more strongly associated with redox predictors, whereas groundwater-level predictors became more important in 2023. Within wells used to evaluate groundwater-level change (n = 251), larger decadal declines were associated with lower arsenic concentrations (median = 31 μg/L) than wells without declines (median = 120 μg/L). We hypothesize a decadal mechanism shift, from redox to hydrological controls, particularly driving arsenic declines.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{haaf2026modeled,
  title = {{Modeled Groundwater Decline is Associated with Lower Arsenic Concentrations in Hanoi}},
  author = {David Haaf and Michael McGlade and Athena A. Nghiem and Duyen Thi Vu and Tobias Steinert and Viet Hung Pham and Linh Khanh Bui and Thanh Ngoc Tong and Duong Du Bui and Andrea Stenke and Michael Berg and Lenny H. E. Winkel},
  journal = {Environmental Science \& Technology},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1021/acs.est.6c07700},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6c07700},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Modeled Groundwater Decline is Associated with Lower Arsenic Concentrations in Hanoi
AU  - David Haaf
AU  - Michael McGlade
AU  - Athena A. Nghiem
AU  - Duyen Thi Vu
AU  - Tobias Steinert
AU  - Viet Hung Pham
AU  - Linh Khanh Bui
AU  - Thanh Ngoc Tong
AU  - Duong Du Bui
AU  - Andrea Stenke
AU  - Michael Berg
AU  - Lenny H. E. Winkel
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/18
JO  - Environmental Science & Technology
DO  - 10.1021/acs.est.6c07700
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6c07700
AB  - Elevated arsenic concentrations in groundwater pose health risks. Geogenic arsenic contamination is driven by biogeochemical mobilization and groundwater dynamics. Intensive pumping can initially exacerbate contamination by drawing arsenic or mobilizing organic matter into aquifers, but over longer time scales may also promote dilution and flushing in some settings. To better understand the mechanisms controlling arsenic concentrations, we examined changes over two decades in Hanoi (Vietnam), a hotspot of geogenic arsenic contamination and groundwater pumping. Arsenic concentrations from 470 wells sampled in the year 2000 were compared with 434 wells sampled in the same area in 2013 and 2023. Median concentrations declined from 14 to 8 μg/L between 2000 and 2023, while mean concentrations and the proportion of high-arsenic wells (>100 μg/L) remained similar. Using hydrochemical and groundwater-level data, CatBoost models combined with SHAP analysis assessed changes in predictor importance. In 2000, arsenic was more strongly associated with redox predictors, whereas groundwater-level predictors became more important in 2023. Within wells used to evaluate groundwater-level change (n = 251), larger decadal declines were associated with lower arsenic concentrations (median = 31 μg/L) than wells without declines (median = 120 μg/L). We hypothesize a decadal mechanism shift, from redox to hydrological controls, particularly driving arsenic declines.
SN  - 0013-936X
SN  - 1520-5851
ER  -