Health impact of a combined COVID-19-influenza mRNA vaccine in older and high-risk Dutch adults
Abstract
Background: Combined COVID-19 and influenza vaccines may increase protection against respiratory disease, notably by improving COVID-19 uptake, which lags behind influenza coverage globally. Data on the effectiveness of mRNA-1083 against both diseases are promising. We evaluate the health impact of introducing mRNA-1083 into the Dutch vaccination program versus separate administration of standard-dose influenza and current COVID-19 vaccines.
Methods: A static decision tree model evaluated the health impact of annual mRNA-1083 vaccination. The target population included adults ≥60 years and high-risk individuals ≥50 years. Vaccine effectiveness was derived from clinical trial data and a meta-analysis; coverage followed Dutch influenza vaccination levels. Incidence was derived from primary care surveillance (respiratory season 2023/24). Hospitalizations and in-hospital mortality were obtained from national ICD-10-coded hospital records (2023). Nursing home mortality was informed by a Dutch study on deaths associated with LRTI, ILI, and COVID-19. Outcomes were expressed as averted cases per category.
Results: Incorporating mRNA-1083 substantially reduces disease burden versus the current strategy. For COVID-19, this corresponds to 13,331 (10,527 - 15,693) GP visits, 4,194 (3,541 - 4,698) hospitalizations, and 1,297 (1,104 - 1,445) deaths averted in a full year. The higher effectiveness of the influenza component in the combined vaccine further prevents a total of 12,222 (-1,203 - 22,103) GP visits, 3,372 (242 - 6,285) cardiorespiratory hospitalizations, and 1,194 (457 - 1,851) deaths in the base-case scenario.
Conclusions: mRNA-1083 for older adults and high-risk groups could substantially reduce disease burden due to respiratory infections in the Netherlands. These findings support the value of combination vaccines for mitigating seasonal respiratory disease.
Key messages: • The use of a combined COVID‑19–influenza mRNA vaccine is projected to substantially reduce the burden of seasonal respiratory disease.
• mRNA‑1083 could avert ∼25,500 GP visits, ∼7,600 hospitalisations, and ∼2,500 deaths from COVID‑19 and influenza among older and high‑risk adults in the Netherlands.
Related
- Public health impact of influenza vaccination in adults ≥65 in Portugal, 2022–2025
- Establishing a human co-infection challenge study of Streptococcus pneumoniae (Spn) and live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) in older healthy adults: E xploring C o-infection with L ive Attenuated I nfluenza Vaccine and P neumococcu S in healthy old E r adults (ECLIPSE), a UK-based single-centre, single-blind randomised controlled trial
- The Health and Economic Impact of the Adult-specific 21-valent (aPCV21) Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine vs PCV20 on Invasive Pneumococcal Disease Among Adults Aged 65 years in the United Kingdom: A Modeling Study
- Estimating the Direct Impact of Influenza Vaccination and Vaccine-Averted Illnesses Using an Extended Static Compartmental Model
- Comparative immunogenicity and relative vaccine efficacy of recombinant and cell culture-based influenza vaccines: Results from a randomized trial of adults in the United States, 2024-2025
BibTeX
@article{braak2026health,
title = {{Health impact of a combined COVID-19-influenza mRNA vaccine in older and high-risk Dutch adults}},
author = {SL De Braak and J Luttjeboer and TA Westra and VJ Lempers and MJ Postma and C Boersma and S Van der Pol},
journal = {The European Journal of Public Health},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.630},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.630},
note = {CC BY-NC 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Health impact of a combined COVID-19-influenza mRNA vaccine in older and high-risk Dutch adults
AU - SL De Braak
AU - J Luttjeboer
AU - TA Westra
AU - VJ Lempers
AU - MJ Postma
AU - C Boersma
AU - S Van der Pol
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/01
JO - The European Journal of Public Health
DO - 10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.630
UR - https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.630
AB - Background: Combined COVID-19 and influenza vaccines may increase protection against respiratory disease, notably by improving COVID-19 uptake, which lags behind influenza coverage globally. Data on the effectiveness of mRNA-1083 against both diseases are promising. We evaluate the health impact of introducing mRNA-1083 into the Dutch vaccination program versus separate administration of standard-dose influenza and current COVID-19 vaccines. Methods: A static decision tree model evaluated the health impact of annual mRNA-1083 vaccination. The target population included adults ≥60 years and high-risk individuals ≥50 years. Vaccine effectiveness was derived from clinical trial data and a meta-analysis; coverage followed Dutch influenza vaccination levels. Incidence was derived from primary care surveillance (respiratory season 2023/24). Hospitalizations and in-hospital mortality were obtained from national ICD-10-coded hospital records (2023). Nursing home mortality was informed by a Dutch study on deaths associated with LRTI, ILI, and COVID-19. Outcomes were expressed as averted cases per category. Results: Incorporating mRNA-1083 substantially reduces disease burden versus the current strategy. For COVID-19, this corresponds to 13,331 (10,527 - 15,693) GP visits, 4,194 (3,541 - 4,698) hospitalizations, and 1,297 (1,104 - 1,445) deaths averted in a full year. The higher effectiveness of the influenza component in the combined vaccine further prevents a total of 12,222 (-1,203 - 22,103) GP visits, 3,372 (242 - 6,285) cardiorespiratory hospitalizations, and 1,194 (457 - 1,851) deaths in the base-case scenario. Conclusions: mRNA-1083 for older adults and high-risk groups could substantially reduce disease burden due to respiratory infections in the Netherlands. These findings support the value of combination vaccines for mitigating seasonal respiratory disease. Key messages: • The use of a combined COVID‑19–influenza mRNA vaccine is projected to substantially reduce the burden of seasonal respiratory disease. • mRNA‑1083 could avert ∼25,500 GP visits, ∼7,600 hospitalisations, and ∼2,500 deaths from COVID‑19 and influenza among older and high‑risk adults in the Netherlands.
SN - 1101-1262
SN - 1464-360X
ER -