Escalating heat stress in Middle East–North Africa under global warming
Abstract
The Middle East–North Africa (MENA) is a major climate change hotspot region where temperatures have risen faster than the global average over recent decades. Global climate warming levels of 2 °C, 3 °C. and 4 °C have been bias adjusted and downscaled using a regional climate model, indicating escalating heat risks in MENA. With 2 °C global warming, the Arabian Gulf area will start experiencing life-threatening humid-heat conditions with wet-bulb temperatures (TWs) exceeding 30 °C, partially approaching 35 °C, the limit of human survivability. Extreme 1-in-50-year heat events under current conditions in the MENA will likely recur every few years. At 3 °C, approximately 50% of MENA’s population is projected to face dangerous heat conditions (> 40 °C) and multiple areas have TWs >30 °C, up to >35 °C. At 4 °C global warming, more than 600 million people in MENA will be exposed to dangerous heat conditions, including about 60 million facing extremely dangerous temperatures above 51 °C. Over 30 million people are projected to experience wet-bulb temperatures exceeding 30 °C, with the most extreme conditions expected in the Gulf region, the Nile Delta, and the southeastern Mediterranean coast. Considering rapid global and accelerating MENA warming, these findings underscore the urgency of implementing climate change adaptation measures.
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BibTeX
@article{ntoumos2026escalating,
title = {{Escalating heat stress in Middle East–North Africa under global warming}},
author = {Athanasios Ntoumos and Panos Hadjinicolaou and George Zittis and Katiana Constantinidou and Robert Vautard and Jos Lelieveld},
journal = {Critical Insights in Climate Change},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.1080/29931495.2025.2610922},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05849905v1},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Escalating heat stress in Middle East–North Africa under global warming
AU - Athanasios Ntoumos
AU - Panos Hadjinicolaou
AU - George Zittis
AU - Katiana Constantinidou
AU - Robert Vautard
AU - Jos Lelieveld
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/03
JO - Critical Insights in Climate Change
DO - 10.1080/29931495.2025.2610922
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05849905v1
AB - The Middle East–North Africa (MENA) is a major climate change hotspot region where temperatures have risen faster than the global average over recent decades. Global climate warming levels of 2 °C, 3 °C. and 4 °C have been bias adjusted and downscaled using a regional climate model, indicating escalating heat risks in MENA. With 2 °C global warming, the Arabian Gulf area will start experiencing life-threatening humid-heat conditions with wet-bulb temperatures (TWs) exceeding 30 °C, partially approaching 35 °C, the limit of human survivability. Extreme 1-in-50-year heat events under current conditions in the MENA will likely recur every few years. At 3 °C, approximately 50% of MENA’s population is projected to face dangerous heat conditions (> 40 °C) and multiple areas have TWs >30 °C, up to >35 °C. At 4 °C global warming, more than 600 million people in MENA will be exposed to dangerous heat conditions, including about 60 million facing extremely dangerous temperatures above 51 °C. Over 30 million people are projected to experience wet-bulb temperatures exceeding 30 °C, with the most extreme conditions expected in the Gulf region, the Nile Delta, and the southeastern Mediterranean coast. Considering rapid global and accelerating MENA warming, these findings underscore the urgency of implementing climate change adaptation measures.
SN - 2993-1495
ER -