An integrated energy system modeling and decision support approach under uncertainty for refining National Commitments
5 affiliations
- 1AE4RIA.ReSEES Research Laboratory, Department of International and European Economic Studies (IEES), School of Economics, Athens University of Economics and Business, Athens, Greece
- 2Department of Earth Sciences and Peterhouse, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- 3AE4RIA.SDU, Athena Research Center, Athens, Greece
- 4UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) Global Climate Hub, Athens, Greece
- 5Independent Researcher, Berlin, Germany
Abstract
IntroductionAchieving climate neutrality is a central goal of European climate policy, with Member States establishing legally binding National Commitments (NCs) for decarbonization through their National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs). However, achieving these commitments efficiently while accounting for national contexts, policy preferences, and uncertainties remains challenging. This study develops an operational framework to refine national decarbonization strategies by prioritizing investments in key measures.MethodsA Decision Support System is developed by integrating highly granular simulations of the Greek energy system using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP), under different NECP-based measures, with two fuzzy multicriteria analysis techniques. The Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to assign weights to emissions, cost, energy dependency, and energy consumption criteria while accounting for uncertainty in preferences. The Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is then applied to rank simulated measures, accounting for data and/or modeling uncertainty. The framework is further assessed through robustness analyses of criterion weights and costs and comparisons with alternative multicriteria analysis methods.ResultsIn a proof-of-concept application to Greece, using criterion weights provided by the modeling team, the prioritized package of decarbonization measures achieves the NECP's 2050 emissions level with fewer measures, lower cumulative emissions over the planning horizon, and lower implementation costs than the alternative strategy considered.DiscussionThe proposed framework supports the systematic prioritization of decarbonization investments while incorporating multiple policy criteria and uncertainties. Robustness analyses and comparisons with alternative multicriteria methods further assess the reliability of the resulting priorities. Since the criterion weights in this proof-of-concept application reflect the modeling team's preferences rather than those of policymakers or stakeholders, the prioritized package should be interpreted as an indicative set of options to inform and support policy deliberation, rather than as a substitute for it.
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BibTeX
@article{koundouri2026integrated,
title = {{An integrated energy system modeling and decision support approach under uncertainty for refining National Commitments}},
author = {Phoebe Koundouri and Phoebe Koundouri and Phoebe Koundouri and Phoebe Koundouri and Angelos Alamanos and Ioannis Arampatzidis and Ioannis Arampatzidis and Stathis Devves and Stathis Devves},
journal = {Frontiers in Environmental Economics},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.3389/frevc.2026.1943421},
url = {https://doi.org/10.3389/frevc.2026.1943421},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - An integrated energy system modeling and decision support approach under uncertainty for refining National Commitments
AU - Phoebe Koundouri
AU - Phoebe Koundouri
AU - Phoebe Koundouri
AU - Phoebe Koundouri
AU - Angelos Alamanos
AU - Ioannis Arampatzidis
AU - Ioannis Arampatzidis
AU - Stathis Devves
AU - Stathis Devves
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/26
JO - Frontiers in Environmental Economics
DO - 10.3389/frevc.2026.1943421
UR - https://doi.org/10.3389/frevc.2026.1943421
AB - IntroductionAchieving climate neutrality is a central goal of European climate policy, with Member States establishing legally binding National Commitments (NCs) for decarbonization through their National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs). However, achieving these commitments efficiently while accounting for national contexts, policy preferences, and uncertainties remains challenging. This study develops an operational framework to refine national decarbonization strategies by prioritizing investments in key measures.MethodsA Decision Support System is developed by integrating highly granular simulations of the Greek energy system using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP), under different NECP-based measures, with two fuzzy multicriteria analysis techniques. The Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to assign weights to emissions, cost, energy dependency, and energy consumption criteria while accounting for uncertainty in preferences. The Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is then applied to rank simulated measures, accounting for data and/or modeling uncertainty. The framework is further assessed through robustness analyses of criterion weights and costs and comparisons with alternative multicriteria analysis methods.ResultsIn a proof-of-concept application to Greece, using criterion weights provided by the modeling team, the prioritized package of decarbonization measures achieves the NECP's 2050 emissions level with fewer measures, lower cumulative emissions over the planning horizon, and lower implementation costs than the alternative strategy considered.DiscussionThe proposed framework supports the systematic prioritization of decarbonization investments while incorporating multiple policy criteria and uncertainties. Robustness analyses and comparisons with alternative multicriteria methods further assess the reliability of the resulting priorities. Since the criterion weights in this proof-of-concept application reflect the modeling team's preferences rather than those of policymakers or stakeholders, the prioritized package should be interpreted as an indicative set of options to inform and support policy deliberation, rather than as a substitute for it.
SN - 2813-2823
ER -