Long-Term Trend of Noctilucent Cloud Altitude Detected: A Comparison of Positional Data with Historical Measurements
Abstract
A large number of photometric and photographic position data of noctilucent clouds (NLC) obtained at 54-61 deg N, 29-50 deg E in 2020-2026 is used, comprising about 20,000 individual measurements of the altitude of NLC fragments recorded by a number of cameras. Comparison with published long-base triangulation measurements starting from 1890 reveals a descending trend in NLC altitude with a 99.5% confidence level. The current descent rate is -1.2 km per century, or half of the model prediction based on the current increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. Other factors that can influence NLC altitude are considered: solar longitude (season), local solar time, lunar tides, latitude, and solar activity. Two independent methods of NLC altitude determination based on the same photometric data are considered and compared.
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BibTeX
@misc{ugolnikov2026longterm,
title = {{Long-Term Trend of Noctilucent Cloud Altitude Detected: A Comparison of Positional Data with Historical Measurements}},
author = {Oleg S. Ugolnikov and Ilya S. Yankovsky and Maxim V. Klimenko and Egor O. Ugolnikov and Andrey M. Tatarnikov and Sergey G. Zheltoukhov},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.41750},
eprint = {2610.41750},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41750},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Long-Term Trend of Noctilucent Cloud Altitude Detected: A Comparison of Positional Data with Historical Measurements
AU - Oleg S. Ugolnikov
AU - Ilya S. Yankovsky
AU - Maxim V. Klimenko
AU - Egor O. Ugolnikov
AU - Andrey M. Tatarnikov
AU - Sergey G. Zheltoukhov
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/30
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.41750
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41750
AB - A large number of photometric and photographic position data of noctilucent clouds (NLC) obtained at 54-61 deg N, 29-50 deg E in 2020-2026 is used, comprising about 20,000 individual measurements of the altitude of NLC fragments recorded by a number of cameras. Comparison with published long-base triangulation measurements starting from 1890 reveals a descending trend in NLC altitude with a 99.5% confidence level. The current descent rate is -1.2 km per century, or half of the model prediction based on the current increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. Other factors that can influence NLC altitude are considered: solar longitude (season), local solar time, lunar tides, latitude, and solar activity. Two independent methods of NLC altitude determination based on the same photometric data are considered and compared.
ER -