Fertility in Ethiopia: factors associated with the number of live births -a survey-adjusted poisson regression analysis of the 2019 ethiopian mini demographic and health survey.
5 affiliations
- 1Doctoral School of Health Science, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Pécs, Pecs, Hungary.
- 2Department of Clinical Medical Sciences, Medical School, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary.
- 3National Laboratory on Human Reproduction, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary.
- 4Institute of Physiotherapy and Sport Sciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary.
- 5Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Clinical Center, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary.
Abstract
Background
Fertility is a key demographic and public health phenomenon reflecting actual childbearing within a population. It can be characterized using several measures, including total fertility rate, age-specific fertility rates, children ever born, and the number of births occurring within a defined reference period. These measures capture different dimensions of reproductive experience and are associated with a complex interplay of socioeconomic, demographic, cultural, biological, and policy-related factors.Methods
By dividing the nine regions into urban and rural categories, twenty-one sampling strata were created. The survey employed a two-stage stratified cluster sampling design. In the first stage, 305 enumeration areas (EAs) were selected from the national sampling frame using probability proportional to size. A total of 8,885 women were included in the descriptive analysis, while the primary multivariable analysis was restricted to 6,585 ever-married/partnered women. A survey-adjusted Poisson regression model was used to examine associations between explanatory variables and the number of live births during the five years preceding the survey. Statistical significance was assessed using a two-sided p-value of <0.05.Result and conclusion
The mean age of the participants was 27.6 years. More than four-fifths of women had either no formal education (40.4%) or primary education (41.7%). Compared with women aged 15-19 years, the expected number of recent live births was higher among women aged 20-24 years (aIRR = 2.129, 95% CI: 1.759-2.577). Women residing in Amhara had a lower expected number of recent live births than women residing in Tigray (aIRR = 0.765, 95% CI: 0.658-0.890). Lower expected counts were also observed in Addis Ababa (aIRR = 0.818, 95% CI: 0.684-0.979) and Dire Dawa (aIRR = 0.792, 95% CI: 0.659-0.952). An inverse association was observed between household wealth and recent live-birth counts. These findings highlight the multifactorial nature of recent live births in Ethiopia and suggest that fertility patterns are associated with a combination of individual, household, and contextual factors. These insights may help inform evidence-based reproductive health and family planning policies tailored to the Ethiopian context.
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BibTeX
@article{mesfin2026fertility,
title = {{Fertility in Ethiopia: factors associated with the number of live births -a survey-adjusted poisson regression analysis of the 2019 ethiopian mini demographic and health survey.}},
author = {Melese Dereje Mesfin and Amare Yirga Wondu and Dahabo Adi Galgalo and Leman Atmaca and Ágnes Buda and Viktória Prémusz},
journal = {Frontiers in reproductive health},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.3389/frph.2026.1928107},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42909082},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Fertility in Ethiopia: factors associated with the number of live births -a survey-adjusted poisson regression analysis of the 2019 ethiopian mini demographic and health survey.
AU - Melese Dereje Mesfin
AU - Amare Yirga Wondu
AU - Dahabo Adi Galgalo
AU - Leman Atmaca
AU - Ágnes Buda
AU - Viktória Prémusz
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/07
JO - Frontiers in reproductive health
DO - 10.3389/frph.2026.1928107
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42909082
AB - Background Fertility is a key demographic and public health phenomenon reflecting actual childbearing within a population. It can be characterized using several measures, including total fertility rate, age-specific fertility rates, children ever born, and the number of births occurring within a defined reference period. These measures capture different dimensions of reproductive experience and are associated with a complex interplay of socioeconomic, demographic, cultural, biological, and policy-related factors.Methods By dividing the nine regions into urban and rural categories, twenty-one sampling strata were created. The survey employed a two-stage stratified cluster sampling design. In the first stage, 305 enumeration areas (EAs) were selected from the national sampling frame using probability proportional to size. A total of 8,885 women were included in the descriptive analysis, while the primary multivariable analysis was restricted to 6,585 ever-married/partnered women. A survey-adjusted Poisson regression model was used to examine associations between explanatory variables and the number of live births during the five years preceding the survey. Statistical significance was assessed using a two-sided p-value of <0.05.Result and conclusion The mean age of the participants was 27.6 years. More than four-fifths of women had either no formal education (40.4%) or primary education (41.7%). Compared with women aged 15-19 years, the expected number of recent live births was higher among women aged 20-24 years (aIRR = 2.129, 95% CI: 1.759-2.577). Women residing in Amhara had a lower expected number of recent live births than women residing in Tigray (aIRR = 0.765, 95% CI: 0.658-0.890). Lower expected counts were also observed in Addis Ababa (aIRR = 0.818, 95% CI: 0.684-0.979) and Dire Dawa (aIRR = 0.792, 95% CI: 0.659-0.952). An inverse association was observed between household wealth and recent live-birth counts. These findings highlight the multifactorial nature of recent live births in Ethiopia and suggest that fertility patterns are associated with a combination of individual, household, and contextual factors. These insights may help inform evidence-based reproductive health and family planning policies tailored to the Ethiopian context.
SN - 2673-3153
ER -