Identifying the determinants of soccer coach turnover by competing risks models: a case study on Italian League Serie A
Abstract
This paper investigates the determinants of head coach turnover in the Italian Serie A over the period 2010-2019 by explicitly accounting for multiple exit mechanisms within a competing risks framework. Four mutually exclusive exit types are considered: end of contract, mutual consent, resignation, and sacking. To identify robust predictors of turnover, we combine classical cause-specific Cox models with a variable selection procedure based on forward selection, LASSO regression, and Random Survival Forests. The results show that performance-related variables are the primary drivers of coach turnover, while personal characteristics play a limited role once performance is controlled for. Short-term performance indicators, such as points per match until turnover, strongly influence the risk of dismissal. Conversely, cumulative poor performance substantially increases dismissal risk: a higher proportion of losses over a coach's tenure raises the hazard of sacking by more than four times. Season timing also plays a crucial role, as sackings and mutual-consent terminations are significantly more likely to occur during the season, whereas contract expirations concentrate at the end of the season. Overall, the findings highlight that clubs differentiate between short-term performance shocks and longer-term performance trajectories when deciding how and when to replace a head coach. By distinguishing among exit mechanisms and adopting a conservative variable selection strategy, the study provides a robust and nuanced assessment of managerial turnover dynamics in the most important Italian professional football league.
Versions
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BibTeX
@misc{porro2026identifying,
title = {{Identifying the determinants of soccer coach turnover by competing risks models: a case study on Italian League Serie A}},
author = {Francesco Porro and Marialuisa Restaino and Juan Eloy Ruiz-Castro and Mariangela Zenga},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2611.04572},
eprint = {2611.04572},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.04572},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Identifying the determinants of soccer coach turnover by competing risks models: a case study on Italian League Serie A
AU - Francesco Porro
AU - Marialuisa Restaino
AU - Juan Eloy Ruiz-Castro
AU - Mariangela Zenga
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/03
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2611.04572
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.04572
AB - This paper investigates the determinants of head coach turnover in the Italian Serie A over the period 2010-2019 by explicitly accounting for multiple exit mechanisms within a competing risks framework. Four mutually exclusive exit types are considered: end of contract, mutual consent, resignation, and sacking. To identify robust predictors of turnover, we combine classical cause-specific Cox models with a variable selection procedure based on forward selection, LASSO regression, and Random Survival Forests. The results show that performance-related variables are the primary drivers of coach turnover, while personal characteristics play a limited role once performance is controlled for. Short-term performance indicators, such as points per match until turnover, strongly influence the risk of dismissal. Conversely, cumulative poor performance substantially increases dismissal risk: a higher proportion of losses over a coach's tenure raises the hazard of sacking by more than four times. Season timing also plays a crucial role, as sackings and mutual-consent terminations are significantly more likely to occur during the season, whereas contract expirations concentrate at the end of the season. Overall, the findings highlight that clubs differentiate between short-term performance shocks and longer-term performance trajectories when deciding how and when to replace a head coach. By distinguishing among exit mechanisms and adopting a conservative variable selection strategy, the study provides a robust and nuanced assessment of managerial turnover dynamics in the most important Italian professional football league.
ER -