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Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0PLOS One

Shot-location polarization and post-2018 pace stabilization in the NBA: Evidence from 21 seasons of team and shot-coordinate data (2004–2025)

  • Shuming Cui1
  • Zhenxing Yang2
  • Hemu Du3
  • Rongheng Liu
  • Shijie Liu
  1. 1School of Physical Education, Shanghai University of Sport, Shanghai, China
  2. 2Department of Physical Education, Capital Normal University, Beijing, China
  3. 3College of Teacher Education, Capital Normal University, Beijing, China
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Abstract

NBA offenses increasingly reflect a “space-and-pace” approach, yet it remains unclear whether recent tempo changes primarily reflect long-run strategic adaptation or the 2018–19 14-second offensive-rebound shot-clock reset. We combined team-season metrics with shot-location data from the NBA Stats API across 21 seasons (2004–05–2024–25; > 420,000 field-goal attempts). Analyses included spatial heatmaps and a Spatial Allocation Index (SAI), segmented regression for league Pace, and multivariate OLS models for Offensive Rating (ORtg). Heatmaps showed a substantial reduction in mid-range attempts and greater concentration at the rim and beyond the arc; SAI increased from 58.98% to 69.99%. Segmented regression identified a marked change around 2018–19, with an immediate increase in Pace and a post-2018 trend that flattened and became slightly negative (pre-2018 slope ≈ 0.44 possessions/season; post-2018 net slope ≈ −0.26). Turnover percentage declined despite higher tempo (p < 0.001). The 2018–19 reset aligned with a step change in tempo, while subsequent seasons show consolidation rather than continued acceleration. Over the longer run, shot allocation became increasingly concentrated at the rim and from three-point range, indicating co-evolution in tempo and shot-location strategy.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{cui2026shotlocation,
  title = {{Shot-location polarization and post-2018 pace stabilization in the NBA: Evidence from 21 seasons of team and shot-coordinate data (2004–2025)}},
  author = {Shuming Cui and Zhenxing Yang and Hemu Du and Rongheng Liu and Shijie Liu},
  journal = {PLOS One},
  year = {2026},
  month = sep,
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0358360},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0358360},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Shot-location polarization and post-2018 pace stabilization in the NBA: Evidence from 21 seasons of team and shot-coordinate data (2004–2025)
AU  - Shuming Cui
AU  - Zhenxing Yang
AU  - Hemu Du
AU  - Rongheng Liu
AU  - Shijie Liu
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/18
JO  - PLOS One
DO  - 10.1371/journal.pone.0358360
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0358360
AB  - NBA offenses increasingly reflect a “space-and-pace” approach, yet it remains unclear whether recent tempo changes primarily reflect long-run strategic adaptation or the 2018–19 14-second offensive-rebound shot-clock reset. We combined team-season metrics with shot-location data from the NBA Stats API across 21 seasons (2004–05–2024–25; > 420,000 field-goal attempts). Analyses included spatial heatmaps and a Spatial Allocation Index (SAI), segmented regression for league Pace, and multivariate OLS models for Offensive Rating (ORtg). Heatmaps showed a substantial reduction in mid-range attempts and greater concentration at the rim and beyond the arc; SAI increased from 58.98% to 69.99%. Segmented regression identified a marked change around 2018–19, with an immediate increase in Pace and a post-2018 trend that flattened and became slightly negative (pre-2018 slope ≈ 0.44 possessions/season; post-2018 net slope ≈ −0.26). Turnover percentage declined despite higher tempo (p < 0.001). The 2018–19 reset aligned with a step change in tempo, while subsequent seasons show consolidation rather than continued acceleration. Over the longer run, shot allocation became increasingly concentrated at the rim and from three-point range, indicating co-evolution in tempo and shot-location strategy.
SN  - 1932-6203
ER  -