Diminishing cooling returns of urban greening amid a warming climate
5 affiliations
- 1State Key Laboratory of Regional and Urban Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China
- 2University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
- 3School of Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Technology Sydney, ultimo, NSW 2007, Australia
- 4Forest and Climate Change Program, Wildlife Conservation Society, Bronx, NY 10460
- 5School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Abstract
Urban greening is widely prioritized as a nature-based solution to mitigating intensifying heat extremes in the context of climate change, yet its long-term global efficacy remains inadequately quantified. Here we present a two-decade assessment of vegetation dynamics and associated cooling effects across 3,806 urban clusters worldwide, integrating multisource satellite observations with ground measurements from 4,855 meteorological stations. We identify a pronounced climate equity gap: While cities in the Global North have largely expanded green infrastructure, they exhibit cooling saturation with diminishing biophysical returns. Conversely, most cities in the Global South show vegetation stagnation or loss, compounding rapid warming trends. This asymmetry exposes a critical climate justice challenge, indicating that current greening efforts are insufficient to offset a warming trend. Our findings underscore the necessity for context-specific, integrated climate adaptation frameworks that address both the quantity and quality of urban vegetation to achieve equitable thermal resilience in an increasingly warm world.
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BibTeX
@article{leng2026diminishing,
title = {{Diminishing cooling returns of urban greening amid a warming climate}},
author = {Song Leng and Hongbin He and Alfredo Huete and Ekena Rangel Pinagé and Wenjie Zhang and Honghao Ding and Liding Chen and Ranhao Sun},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2616535123},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2616535123},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Diminishing cooling returns of urban greening amid a warming climate
AU - Song Leng
AU - Hongbin He
AU - Alfredo Huete
AU - Ekena Rangel Pinagé
AU - Wenjie Zhang
AU - Honghao Ding
AU - Liding Chen
AU - Ranhao Sun
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/20
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
DO - 10.1073/pnas.2616535123
UR - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2616535123
AB - Urban greening is widely prioritized as a nature-based solution to mitigating intensifying heat extremes in the context of climate change, yet its long-term global efficacy remains inadequately quantified. Here we present a two-decade assessment of vegetation dynamics and associated cooling effects across 3,806 urban clusters worldwide, integrating multisource satellite observations with ground measurements from 4,855 meteorological stations. We identify a pronounced climate equity gap: While cities in the Global North have largely expanded green infrastructure, they exhibit cooling saturation with diminishing biophysical returns. Conversely, most cities in the Global South show vegetation stagnation or loss, compounding rapid warming trends. This asymmetry exposes a critical climate justice challenge, indicating that current greening efforts are insufficient to offset a warming trend. Our findings underscore the necessity for context-specific, integrated climate adaptation frameworks that address both the quantity and quality of urban vegetation to achieve equitable thermal resilience in an increasingly warm world.
SN - 0027-8424
SN - 1091-6490
ER -