Relationship Between Predicted Habitat Suitability and Population Density of Game Mammals Under a Sharply Continental Climate
- 1Department of Biology and Ecology, Faculty of Natural Science Toraighyrov University NCJSC Pavlodar Kazakhstan
Abstract
This study evaluates the relationship between MaxEnt‐predicted habitat suitability and departmental estimates of population density for 14 game mammal species in the Pavlodar Region. Model performance varied substantially among species (Test AUC = 0.538–0.992; TSS = 0.220–0.984), and extremely high AUC values for some species with small samples were interpreted cautiously. For 41 territorial units, habitat suitability was aggregated as the mean MaxEnt value within each polygon and compared with density using Spearman's rank correlation. Spearman's r s ranged from 0.288 to 0.738; in the initial analysis, a statistically significant positive relationship was detected for 13 of the 14 species, whereas the relationship was not statistically significant for the steppe polecat ( r s = 0.288; p = 0.068). Residual spatial autocorrelation assessed with Moran's I was non‐significant for 11 species; for wolf, bobak marmot, and roe deer, an additional spatially constrained permutation analysis was performed. After this analysis, the relationship remained significant for wolf ( r s = 0.714, p = 0.0007) and roe deer ( r s = 0.488, p = 0.0198), whereas for bobak marmot it remained positive but was not statistically significant after accounting for spatial structure ( r s = 0.467; p = 0.0615). The results indicate that habitat suitability reflects the environmental potential of an area but is not a direct measure of population density.
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BibTeX
@article{sergazinova2026relationship,
title = {{Relationship Between Predicted Habitat Suitability and Population Density of Game Mammals Under a Sharply Continental Climate}},
author = {Zarina Sergazinova},
journal = {Ecology and Evolution},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.1002/ece3.74621},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.74621},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Relationship Between Predicted Habitat Suitability and Population Density of Game Mammals Under a Sharply Continental Climate
AU - Zarina Sergazinova
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/08
JO - Ecology and Evolution
DO - 10.1002/ece3.74621
UR - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.74621
AB - This study evaluates the relationship between MaxEnt‐predicted habitat suitability and departmental estimates of population density for 14 game mammal species in the Pavlodar Region. Model performance varied substantially among species (Test AUC = 0.538–0.992; TSS = 0.220–0.984), and extremely high AUC values for some species with small samples were interpreted cautiously. For 41 territorial units, habitat suitability was aggregated as the mean MaxEnt value within each polygon and compared with density using Spearman's rank correlation. Spearman's r s ranged from 0.288 to 0.738; in the initial analysis, a statistically significant positive relationship was detected for 13 of the 14 species, whereas the relationship was not statistically significant for the steppe polecat ( r s = 0.288; p = 0.068). Residual spatial autocorrelation assessed with Moran's I was non‐significant for 11 species; for wolf, bobak marmot, and roe deer, an additional spatially constrained permutation analysis was performed. After this analysis, the relationship remained significant for wolf ( r s = 0.714, p = 0.0007) and roe deer ( r s = 0.488, p = 0.0198), whereas for bobak marmot it remained positive but was not statistically significant after accounting for spatial structure ( r s = 0.467; p = 0.0615). The results indicate that habitat suitability reflects the environmental potential of an area but is not a direct measure of population density.
SN - 2045-7758
SN - 2045-7758
ER -