Varying Seasonal Runoff Drives the Timing and Volume of Water‐Dependent Recreational Activities in the Sacramento‐San Joaquin Delta
5 affiliations
- 1Department of Management of Complex Systems School of Engineering University of California Merced CA USA
- 2Department of Earth Sciences Uppsala University Uppsala Sweden
- 3Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California San Diego CA USA
- 4Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of California Merced CA USA
- 5Department of Human Ecology University of California Davis CA USA
Abstract
Climate variations affect access to recreational opportunities through different mechanisms that influence the provisioning of water and ecosystem services. From 2000 to 2022, Northern and Central California experienced extreme climate fluctuations, with alternating multi‐year dry spells and wet years causing highly variable runoff from the Sierra Nevada into the Sacramento‐San Joaquin Delta. This study assesses how these hydroclimatic variations influence regional recreation by analyzing summer activities (boating, day use) alongside winter activities (birding, waterfowl hunting) at state parks and wildlife areas. The objective is to evaluate how monthly visitor volume and timing shift during drought versus wet conditions, distinguishing between activities directly or indirectly dependent on water resources. During summer droughts with critical low runoff, recreational activity declines sharply; boating drops by 65.8% and day use decreases by 13.8% at state park units. Conversely, winter droughts correlate with increased recreational engagement. Critical low runoff is associated with a 23.4% increase in birding observations and a 50.2% increase in waterfowl hunting takes. This winter increase occurs because restricted wetland resources concentrate waterfowl populations, making them more accessible to visitors. Activities directly dependent on water resources, including recreational fisheries, show the highest sensitivity to runoff fluctuations. We also find that visitor spending is highest during critical drought and wet runoff extremes, reflecting winter demand in drought years, and summer demand in the wettest years. These results highlight the vulnerability of water‐dependent recreation and its economic contributions as climate change accelerates the frequency and magnitude of extreme wet and dry cycles.
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BibTeX
@article{jenkins2026varying,
title = {{Varying Seasonal Runoff Drives the Timing and Volume of Water‐Dependent Recreational Activities in the Sacramento‐San Joaquin Delta}},
author = {Jeffrey S. Jenkins and Isaac T. Sanchez and Laurel G. Larsen and Daniel R. Cayan and Yu Cai and Brett Milligan},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1029/2025wr043188},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr043188},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Varying Seasonal Runoff Drives the Timing and Volume of Water‐Dependent Recreational Activities in the Sacramento‐San Joaquin Delta
AU - Jeffrey S. Jenkins
AU - Isaac T. Sanchez
AU - Laurel G. Larsen
AU - Daniel R. Cayan
AU - Yu Cai
AU - Brett Milligan
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/26
JO - Water Resources Research
DO - 10.1029/2025wr043188
UR - https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr043188
AB - Climate variations affect access to recreational opportunities through different mechanisms that influence the provisioning of water and ecosystem services. From 2000 to 2022, Northern and Central California experienced extreme climate fluctuations, with alternating multi‐year dry spells and wet years causing highly variable runoff from the Sierra Nevada into the Sacramento‐San Joaquin Delta. This study assesses how these hydroclimatic variations influence regional recreation by analyzing summer activities (boating, day use) alongside winter activities (birding, waterfowl hunting) at state parks and wildlife areas. The objective is to evaluate how monthly visitor volume and timing shift during drought versus wet conditions, distinguishing between activities directly or indirectly dependent on water resources. During summer droughts with critical low runoff, recreational activity declines sharply; boating drops by 65.8% and day use decreases by 13.8% at state park units. Conversely, winter droughts correlate with increased recreational engagement. Critical low runoff is associated with a 23.4% increase in birding observations and a 50.2% increase in waterfowl hunting takes. This winter increase occurs because restricted wetland resources concentrate waterfowl populations, making them more accessible to visitors. Activities directly dependent on water resources, including recreational fisheries, show the highest sensitivity to runoff fluctuations. We also find that visitor spending is highest during critical drought and wet runoff extremes, reflecting winter demand in drought years, and summer demand in the wettest years. These results highlight the vulnerability of water‐dependent recreation and its economic contributions as climate change accelerates the frequency and magnitude of extreme wet and dry cycles.
SN - 1944-7973
SN - 0043-1397
ER -