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Peer-reviewedCC BYNature Communications

The economically optimal mix and timing of coastal adaptation in Europe to 2150

  • Vanessa Völz1,2,3
  • Jochen Hinkel4,5,3
  • Daniël Lincke4,6
  • Lars E. Honsel4,6
  • Robert James Nicholls7,8
  • Rémi Thiéblemont9,10
  • Gonéri Le Cozannet9,11
  • Paul B. Sayers12,13
13 affiliations
  1. 1Global Climate Forum, Berlin, Germany. [email protected]
  2. 2Thaer-Institute of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany. [email protected]
  3. 3Global Climate Forum (GCF)
  4. 4Global Climate Forum, Berlin, Germany
  5. 5Thaer-Institute of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
  6. 6Global Climate Forum
  7. 7Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia (UEA), Norwich, UK
  8. 8Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia
  9. 9BRGM - French Geological Survey, Orléans, France
  10. 10BRGM - French Geological Survey
  11. 11BRGM/French Geological Survey
  12. 12Sayers and Partners, Watlington, UK
  13. 13Sayers and Partners
Open at sourcePDFDOICite

Abstract

Coastal adaptation to sea level rise involves combining and sequencing adaptation options into adaptation pathways that include adaptation tipping points, which are moments requiring a switch between options, often due to economic limits. While local case studies show costs depend on the economically optimal timing of actions and adaptation tipping points, this remains unexplored on global and continental scales. We present economically optimal adaptation pathways for Europe's coastal floodplains through 2150. For 95% of the coastline requiring adaptation, the optimal timing for initial actions is immediate due to current economic under-adaptation, a condition in which the costs of additional adaptation are outweighed by the reduction in expected flood damages. By 2150, retreat is economically optimal for 22% of the coastline, incurring lower total costs than protection, which is optimal for 9%. Adaptation tipping points are primarily driven by sea level rise and necessitate a switch from accommodation to either protection or retreat, or from retreat to inland protection combined with retreat in the foreland. Their timing depends on climate change, occurring 32 years earlier under higher climate change scenarios compared to lower ones.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{volz2026economically,
  title = {{The economically optimal mix and timing of coastal adaptation in Europe to 2150}},
  author = {Vanessa Völz and Jochen Hinkel and Daniël Lincke and Lars E. Honsel and Robert James Nicholls and Rémi Thiéblemont and Gonéri Le Cozannet and Paul B. Sayers},
  journal = {Nature Communications},
  year = {2026},
  month = jul,
  doi = {10.1038/s41467-026-74042-8},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-74042-8},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - The economically optimal mix and timing of coastal adaptation in Europe to 2150
AU  - Vanessa Völz
AU  - Jochen Hinkel
AU  - Daniël Lincke
AU  - Lars E. Honsel
AU  - Robert James Nicholls
AU  - Rémi Thiéblemont
AU  - Gonéri Le Cozannet
AU  - Paul B. Sayers
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/07/15
JO  - Nature Communications
DO  - 10.1038/s41467-026-74042-8
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-74042-8
AB  - Coastal adaptation to sea level rise involves combining and sequencing adaptation options into adaptation pathways that include adaptation tipping points, which are moments requiring a switch between options, often due to economic limits. While local case studies show costs depend on the economically optimal timing of actions and adaptation tipping points, this remains unexplored on global and continental scales. We present economically optimal adaptation pathways for Europe's coastal floodplains through 2150. For 95% of the coastline requiring adaptation, the optimal timing for initial actions is immediate due to current economic under-adaptation, a condition in which the costs of additional adaptation are outweighed by the reduction in expected flood damages. By 2150, retreat is economically optimal for 22% of the coastline, incurring lower total costs than protection, which is optimal for 9%. Adaptation tipping points are primarily driven by sea level rise and necessitate a switch from accommodation to either protection or retreat, or from retreat to inland protection combined with retreat in the foreland. Their timing depends on climate change, occurring 32 years earlier under higher climate change scenarios compared to lower ones.
SN  - 2041-1723
ER  -