Climate‐Driven Distribution Modeling of the Glacial Apollo Butterfly ( Parnassius glacialis ) for Biodiversity Conservation
6 affiliations
- 1Biocontrol Engineering Laboratory of Crop Diseases and Pests of Gansu Province, College of Plant Protection Gansu Agricultural University Lanzhou Gansu China
- 2College of Life Science and Agronomy Zhoukou Normal University Zhoukou Henan China
- 3Dancheng Green Agriculture Observation and Research Station of Henan Province Zhoukou Normal University Zhoukou Henan China
- 4Department of Entomology Universidade Federal de Vicosa Vicosa Minas Gerais Brazil
- 5Department of Phytotoxicity Research, Central Agricultural Pesticide Laboratory Agricultural Research Center Giza Dokki Egypt
- 6Department of Entomology, College of Life Science China West Normal University Nanchong China
Abstract
Understanding how climate change affects insect distribution is critical for biodiversity conservation, particularly in the case of range‐restricted and ecologically sensitive species. The glacial Apollo, Parnassius glacialis (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae), is a high‐altitude butterfly of notable scientific and esthetic value, yet its ecological response to climate change remains poorly understood. Here, we model the current and future distribution of P. glacialis across China and identify key environmental drivers shaping its habitat. We developed an ensemble species distribution model using 45 occurrence records and 10 bioclimatic variables, integrating outputs from multiple algorithms to enhance predictive robustness. Temperature—particularly seasonal variation—emerged as the strongest determinant of habitat suitability, followed by precipitation. At present, suitable habitats are concentrated in northern, southwestern, and eastern China. However, projections under future climate scenarios reveal a marked reduction in suitable range, with the habitat centroid shifting to lower elevations in Hubei Province. The direction and extent of this shift vary among scenarios, highlighting the species' vulnerability to both climatic and socioeconomic trajectories. These findings raise urgent conservation concerns, suggesting that P. glacialis may face significant habitat loss and range contraction under projected climate conditions. We recommend the establishment of targeted protected areas, the integration of insect responses into climate adaptation policies, and the implementation of long‐term ecological monitoring. This study provides crucial insights into climate‐driven range shifts in high‐altitude butterflies and underscores the broader need for adaptive conservation strategies in a warming world.
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BibTeX
@article{wang2026climatedriven,
title = {{Climate‐Driven Distribution Modeling of the Glacial Apollo Butterfly ( Parnassius glacialis ) for Biodiversity Conservation}},
author = {Yongli Wang and Mingsheng Yang and Yupei Hu and Raul Narciso C. Guedes and Youssef Dewer and Suqin Shang and Xiushan Li},
journal = {Ecology and Evolution},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.1002/ece3.74412},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.74412},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Climate‐Driven Distribution Modeling of the Glacial Apollo Butterfly ( Parnassius glacialis ) for Biodiversity Conservation
AU - Yongli Wang
AU - Mingsheng Yang
AU - Yupei Hu
AU - Raul Narciso C. Guedes
AU - Youssef Dewer
AU - Suqin Shang
AU - Xiushan Li
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/01
JO - Ecology and Evolution
DO - 10.1002/ece3.74412
UR - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.74412
AB - Understanding how climate change affects insect distribution is critical for biodiversity conservation, particularly in the case of range‐restricted and ecologically sensitive species. The glacial Apollo, Parnassius glacialis (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae), is a high‐altitude butterfly of notable scientific and esthetic value, yet its ecological response to climate change remains poorly understood. Here, we model the current and future distribution of P. glacialis across China and identify key environmental drivers shaping its habitat. We developed an ensemble species distribution model using 45 occurrence records and 10 bioclimatic variables, integrating outputs from multiple algorithms to enhance predictive robustness. Temperature—particularly seasonal variation—emerged as the strongest determinant of habitat suitability, followed by precipitation. At present, suitable habitats are concentrated in northern, southwestern, and eastern China. However, projections under future climate scenarios reveal a marked reduction in suitable range, with the habitat centroid shifting to lower elevations in Hubei Province. The direction and extent of this shift vary among scenarios, highlighting the species' vulnerability to both climatic and socioeconomic trajectories. These findings raise urgent conservation concerns, suggesting that P. glacialis may face significant habitat loss and range contraction under projected climate conditions. We recommend the establishment of targeted protected areas, the integration of insect responses into climate adaptation policies, and the implementation of long‐term ecological monitoring. This study provides crucial insights into climate‐driven range shifts in high‐altitude butterflies and underscores the broader need for adaptive conservation strategies in a warming world.
SN - 2045-7758
SN - 2045-7758
ER -