Constraints on redshift-evolving Hubble constant models with early- and late-time diagnostics
Abstract
We systematically investigate four cosmological models within a parameterized framework that allows for a redshift dependence of H0: three phenomenological models (αΛCDM, αwCDM, and αw0waCDM), and the JCDM model motivated by big bang quantum cosmology. Using cosmic microwave background (CMB) data, baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO), cosmic chronometer (CC) measurements of the Hubble parameter, and three Type Ia supernova samples (PantheonPlus, DESY5, and Union3), we perform Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analyses to obtain posterior distributions of the model parameters. We also perform separate analyses using early-time and late-time data to assess how each observational epoch affects the model constraints. For the three phenomenological models, the parameter α describing the redshift evolution of H0 is consistent with zero within 2σ. The Hubble constant inferred from the αΛCDM model is consistent with CMB results, while the JCDM model yields a larger Hubble constant but is strongly disfavored by model comparison criteria. Using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) for model comparison, we find that the standard ΛCDM model remains the most favored by the data. Among the four models, the αw0waCDM model shows a marginal AIC advantage (ΔAIC ∼ -2 to -13). However, this preference does not translate into a reduction of the Hubble tension, which is consistent with existing studies supporting dynamical dark energy. Moreover, none of the models can simultaneously satisfy both the early- and late-time constraints, and the combined datasets alone are insufficient to conclusively determine whether these parametrizations can resolve the tension.
Related
- Running Hubble Constant with the Redshift as a Marker of Evolutionary Dark Energy
- The LGRBs Redshift and Jet Opening Angle Distributions and the Hubble Constant H0
- A unified cosmographic reconstruction of the Hubble expansion: Bayesian constraints on dark energy and modified-gravity diagnostics
- Joint Constraints on the Hubble Constant and Cosmic Baryon Density from Localized Fast Radio Bursts and DESI DR2 Baryon Acoustic Oscillations
- Modified hydrogen recombination rate due to non-Hubble redshift effects
BibTeX
@misc{yang2026constraints,
title = {{Constraints on redshift-evolving Hubble constant models with early- and late-time diagnostics}},
author = {Yupeng Yang},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2608.23589},
eprint = {2608.23589},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.23589},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Constraints on redshift-evolving Hubble constant models with early- and late-time diagnostics
AU - Yupeng Yang
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/28
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2608.23589
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.23589
AB - We systematically investigate four cosmological models within a parameterized framework that allows for a redshift dependence of H_0: three phenomenological models (αΛCDM, αwCDM, and αw_0w_aCDM), and the JCDM model motivated by big bang quantum cosmology. Using cosmic microwave background (CMB) data, baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO), cosmic chronometer (CC) measurements of the Hubble parameter, and three Type Ia supernova samples (PantheonPlus, DESY5, and Union3), we perform Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analyses to obtain posterior distributions of the model parameters. We also perform separate analyses using early-time and late-time data to assess how each observational epoch affects the model constraints. For the three phenomenological models, the parameter α describing the redshift evolution of H_0 is consistent with zero within 2σ. The Hubble constant inferred from the αΛCDM model is consistent with CMB results, while the JCDM model yields a larger Hubble constant but is strongly disfavored by model comparison criteria. Using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) for model comparison, we find that the standard ΛCDM model remains the most favored by the data. Among the four models, the αw_0w_aCDM model shows a marginal AIC advantage (ΔAIC ∼ -2 to -13). However, this preference does not translate into a reduction of the Hubble tension, which is consistent with existing studies supporting dynamical dark energy. Moreover, none of the models can simultaneously satisfy both the early- and late-time constraints, and the combined datasets alone are insufficient to conclusively determine whether these parametrizations can resolve the tension.
ER -