Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture

@article{gibson2026food,
  title = {{Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture}},
  author = {Matthew Gibson and Marina Sundiang and Daniel Mason-D'Croz and Thais Diniz Oliveira and Felicitas Beier and Lauren Benavidez and Astrid Bos and Maksym G. Chepeliev and Jonathan Doelman and Shahnila Dunston and Shinichiro Fujimori and Tomoko Hasegawa and Peter Havlík and Jordan Hristov and Jonas Jägermeyr and Marta Kozicka and Marijke Kuiper and Ipsita Kumar and Thijs de Lange and Benjamin Leon Bodirsky and Hermann Lotze‐Campen and Hermen Luchtenbelt and David Chen and Abhijeet Mishra and Christoph Müller and Gerald Charles Nelson and Ignácio Pérez Domínguez and Alexander Popp and Ronald D. Sands and Marco Springmann and Elke Stehfest and Timothy B. Sulser and Kiyoshi Takahashi and Gianmaria Tassinari and Ferike Thom and Philip K. Thornton and Jake Tommey and Kazuaki Tsuchiya and Willem‐Jan van Zeist and Hans van Meijl and Dominique Y van der Mensbrugghe and Amanda Palazzo and Hannah H.E. van Zanten and Hannah H.E. van Zanten and Isabelle Weindl and Keith Wiebe and Xin Zhao and Page G. Kyle and Mario Herrero},
  journal = {Nature},
  year = {2026},
  month = jul,
  doi = {10.1038/s41586-026-10775-2},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10775-2},
  note = {CC BY},
}

TY  - JOUR
TI  - Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture
AU  - Matthew Gibson
AU  - Marina Sundiang
AU  - Daniel Mason-D'Croz
AU  - Thais Diniz Oliveira
AU  - Felicitas Beier
AU  - Lauren Benavidez
AU  - Astrid Bos
AU  - Maksym G. Chepeliev
AU  - Jonathan Doelman
AU  - Shahnila Dunston
AU  - Shinichiro Fujimori
AU  - Tomoko Hasegawa
AU  - Peter Havlík
AU  - Jordan Hristov
AU  - Jonas Jägermeyr
AU  - Marta Kozicka
AU  - Marijke Kuiper
AU  - Ipsita Kumar
AU  - Thijs de Lange
AU  - Benjamin Leon Bodirsky
AU  - Hermann Lotze‐Campen
AU  - Hermen Luchtenbelt
AU  - David Chen
AU  - Abhijeet Mishra
AU  - Christoph Müller
AU  - Gerald Charles Nelson
AU  - Ignácio Pérez Domínguez
AU  - Alexander Popp
AU  - Ronald D. Sands
AU  - Marco Springmann
AU  - Elke Stehfest
AU  - Timothy B. Sulser
AU  - Kiyoshi Takahashi
AU  - Gianmaria Tassinari
AU  - Ferike Thom
AU  - Philip K. Thornton
AU  - Jake Tommey
AU  - Kazuaki Tsuchiya
AU  - Willem‐Jan van Zeist
AU  - Hans van Meijl
AU  - Dominique Y van der Mensbrugghe
AU  - Amanda Palazzo
AU  - Hannah H.E. van Zanten
AU  - Hannah H.E. van Zanten
AU  - Isabelle Weindl
AU  - Keith Wiebe
AU  - Xin Zhao
AU  - Page G. Kyle
AU  - Mario Herrero
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/07/15
JO  - Nature
DO  - 10.1038/s41586-026-10775-2
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10775-2
AB  - Food systems exert significant stress on planetary boundaries1–3 while healthy diets are currently unaffordable for billions worldwide4. These challenges are expected to continue under global population trends, projected to reach 9.6 billion by mid-century5. Food systems must therefore transform in pursuit of health and sustainability goals6–8. However, the scale and distribution of this transformation on agriculture is underexplored. Here we show that, by 2050, an EAT-Lancet style food systems transformation results in a fundamental restructuring of global agriculture, aspects of which break with historical trends. Scenario simulations using a multi-model ensemble of 10 global economic models show a 6% median decrease in agricultural land of 274Mha (+1 to -26%, +48 to -1257Mha) compared to 2020 levels. By 2050, agricultural production would be 2 to 32% (-0.2x109 to -3.7x109 tonnes) lower than business-as-usual projections, and economically, the value of this production shows a 26% median relative decline of 1.6tn in USD2020 (+8% to −58%, +0.5tn to -$2.9tn USD2020) Within this, the value of livestock production would fall substantially (-$1tn to -$2.2tn, -49% to -83%). These results reinforce the need for a more active role for food policy and stakeholder dialogue to catalyse such a transformation and navigate the political economic consequences of its impacts.
SN  - 0028-0836
SN  - 1476-4687
ER  -