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Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0The Astrophysical Journal

The Missing Black Hole in the Large Magellanic Cloud: A Dynamical Prediction for Its Present-day Location

  • Robin Chisholm1
  • Elena D’Onghia1
  • Niv Drory2
  • Andrew J. Fox3
  • Noam Libeskind4
4 affiliations
  1. 1University of Wisconsin
  2. 2McDonald Observatory
  3. 3AURA for ESA
  4. 4Leibniz-Institut für Astrophysik Potsdam (AIP)
Open at sourcePDFDOICite

Abstract

There are indications that the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) hosts a central supermassive black hole (SMBH), yet no direct detection exists: one reason is that its present-day location need not necessarily coincide with the photometric or kinematic centers. Here we frame a dynamical targeting problem and predict the present-day sky location of the LMC SMBH. We model the recent LMC–Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) interaction, which induces a bar-disk offset, and integrate SMBH orbits within a realistic, time-dependent LMC–SMC–Milky Way (MW) potential. We show that the MW tidal field at the present epoch exceeds that of the SMC by at least an order of magnitude, setting a preferred direction for coherent, vertical low-amplitude displacements, while the disk asymmetry drives in-plane offsets. Projecting onto the observed LMC frame, the mean of our predicted SMBH probability distribution is located at ( α , δ ) = ( 80 . ″ 23 , − 69 . ″ 55 ) g, with a 1 σ confidence ellipse having semimajor and semiminor axes of ( a , b ) = ( 1 . ″ 34 , 0 . ″ 56 ) , respectively. This mean is ∼6′ north of the adopted dynamical center, while the mode coincides with the dynamical center and lies well within the 1 σ confidence region. Furthermore, all literature estimates of the LMC center considered here fall within the 2 σ confidence region. This provides a concrete, testable target for ongoing and upcoming spectroscopic surveys, transforming the search for the LMC SMBH from an unconstrained problem into a focused observational strategy.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{chisholm2026missing,
  title = {{The Missing Black Hole in the Large Magellanic Cloud: A Dynamical Prediction for Its Present-day Location}},
  author = {Robin Chisholm and Elena D’Onghia and Niv Drory and Andrew J. Fox and Noam Libeskind},
  journal = {The Astrophysical Journal},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.3847/1538-4357/aeacce},
  url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/aeacce},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - The Missing Black Hole in the Large Magellanic Cloud: A Dynamical Prediction for Its Present-day Location
AU  - Robin Chisholm
AU  - Elena D’Onghia
AU  - Niv Drory
AU  - Andrew J. Fox
AU  - Noam Libeskind
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/28
JO  - The Astrophysical Journal
DO  - 10.3847/1538-4357/aeacce
UR  - https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/aeacce
AB  - There are indications that the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) hosts a central supermassive black hole (SMBH), yet no direct detection exists: one reason is that its present-day location need not necessarily coincide with the photometric or kinematic centers. Here we frame a dynamical targeting problem and predict the present-day sky location of the LMC SMBH. We model the recent LMC–Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) interaction, which induces a bar-disk offset, and integrate SMBH orbits within a realistic, time-dependent LMC–SMC–Milky Way (MW) potential. We show that the MW tidal field at the present epoch exceeds that of the SMC by at least an order of magnitude, setting a preferred direction for coherent, vertical low-amplitude displacements, while the disk asymmetry drives in-plane offsets. Projecting onto the observed LMC frame, the mean of our predicted SMBH probability distribution is located at ( α , δ ) = ( 80 . ″ 23 , − 69 . ″ 55 ) g, with a 1 σ confidence ellipse having semimajor and semiminor axes of ( a , b ) = ( 1 . ″ 34 , 0 . ″ 56 ) , respectively. This mean is ∼6′ north of the adopted dynamical center, while the mode coincides with the dynamical center and lies well within the 1 σ confidence region. Furthermore, all literature estimates of the LMC center considered here fall within the 2 σ confidence region. This provides a concrete, testable target for ongoing and upcoming spectroscopic surveys, transforming the search for the LMC SMBH from an unconstrained problem into a focused observational strategy.
SN  - 1538-4357
SN  - 0004-637X
ER  -