Temporal trends of dengue exposure among children in coastal Kenya

Abstract

Background: Serosurveys suggest widespread dengue virus (DENV) transmission in Africa but there is limited information on the temporal patterns of exposure.

Methods: Using repeated cross-sectional serosurvey data, we estimated the prevalence and incidence of DENV infections in coastal Kenya over 20 years (1998–2018). Stored sera ( n = 8025), collected annually from an open longitudinal cohort of 1834 children aged 15 years and below, were screened for anti-DENV IgG antibodies.

Results: We show that, of 8025 samples, 2287 (28.5%, 95% CI 27.5–29.5%) were seropositive for DENV IgG antibodies. Seroprevalence increased with age, from 2% among children aged below 1 year to 40% among those aged 9 to 10 years, and peaked during outbreak years. Among 1343 children who were seronegative at recruitment, the overall incidence (seroconversion) rate was 111.5 DENV infections per 1000 person-years (95% CI 102.5–121.2). The highest incidence occurred in 2013 at 439.7 infections per 1000 person-years (95% CI 375.1–515.5), coinciding with a large outbreak in coastal Kenya.

Conclusions: Our findings suggest long-term DENV exposure among children in coastal Kenya and highlight an urgent need for clinical surveillance to determine the associated health burden.

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Cite

BibTeX RIS

BibTeX

@article{mugo2026temporal,
  title = {{Temporal trends of dengue exposure among children in coastal Kenya}},
  author = {Daisy Mugo and Henry K. Karanja and Benedict Orindi and John N. Gitonga and Kennedy Mwai and Doris K. Nyamwaya and Donwilliams O. Omuoyo and Anthony K. Nyamache and Barnes S. Kitsao and Jennifer N. Musyoki and Julianna Wambua and Edward Otieno and Lynette Isabella Ochola-Oyier and Philip Bejon and George M. Warimwe},
  journal = {Communications Medicine},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1038/s43856-026-01973-0},
  url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s43856-026-01973-0},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}

RIS

TY  - JOUR
TI  - Temporal trends of dengue exposure among children in coastal Kenya
AU  - Daisy Mugo
AU  - Henry K. Karanja
AU  - Benedict Orindi
AU  - John N. Gitonga
AU  - Kennedy Mwai
AU  - Doris K. Nyamwaya
AU  - Donwilliams O. Omuoyo
AU  - Anthony K. Nyamache
AU  - Barnes S. Kitsao
AU  - Jennifer N. Musyoki
AU  - Julianna Wambua
AU  - Edward Otieno
AU  - Lynette Isabella Ochola-Oyier
AU  - Philip Bejon
AU  - George M. Warimwe
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/16
JO  - Communications Medicine
DO  - 10.1038/s43856-026-01973-0
UR  - https://www.nature.com/articles/s43856-026-01973-0
AB  - Background: Serosurveys suggest widespread dengue virus (DENV) transmission in Africa but there is limited information on the temporal patterns of exposure.  Methods: Using repeated cross-sectional serosurvey data, we estimated the prevalence and incidence of DENV infections in coastal Kenya over 20 years (1998–2018). Stored sera ( n = 8025), collected annually from an open longitudinal cohort of 1834 children aged 15 years and below, were screened for anti-DENV IgG antibodies.  Results: We show that, of 8025 samples, 2287 (28.5%, 95% CI 27.5–29.5%) were seropositive for DENV IgG antibodies. Seroprevalence increased with age, from 2% among children aged below 1 year to 40% among those aged 9 to 10 years, and peaked during outbreak years. Among 1343 children who were seronegative at recruitment, the overall incidence (seroconversion) rate was 111.5 DENV infections per 1000 person-years (95% CI 102.5–121.2). The highest incidence occurred in 2013 at 439.7 infections per 1000 person-years (95% CI 375.1–515.5), coinciding with a large outbreak in coastal Kenya.  Conclusions: Our findings suggest long-term DENV exposure among children in coastal Kenya and highlight an urgent need for clinical surveillance to determine the associated health burden.
SN  - 2730-664X
ER  -

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