Cry wolf effect in flood early warning
4 affiliations
- 1Department of Civil Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, the University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Corresponding author at: Department of Civil Engineering, the University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, 7-3-1, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan.
- 2Department of Civil Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, the University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
- 3Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan
- 4Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Environment and Society, Institute of Science Tokyo, Japan
Abstract
To maximize the potential of advanced flood early warning technologies, it is crucial to understand how effectively flood early warning systems (FEWS) induce preparedness actions from local government, enterprises, and the general public. Repeated false alarms can undermine the credibility of FEWS, making it difficult for stakeholders to take preparedness actions. Although quantifying this “cry wolf effect” is important to design effective FEWS (e.g., setting appropriate warning thresholds), few studies have explored its existence in the context of flood early warning. Can weather agencies become “The boy who cried wolf”? To answer this question, we developed a new dataset which allows for the analysis of the relationship between flood economic losses and weather warning outcomes in Japan from 2002 to 2022. Our multiple regression analysis reveals a statistically significant association of false alarms with flood economic loss: municipalities experiencing higher false alarm ratios over the past 6 to 24 months suffer greater economic damage from floods, holding all other factors constant. This study serves as an initial step toward a comprehensive understanding of the complex relationship between prediction accuracy, warning criteria, public trust in authorities, and preparedness actions against flooding.
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BibTeX
@article{sawada2026wolf,
title = {{Cry wolf effect in flood early warning}},
author = {Yohei Sawada and Ryota Yagi and Takuya Kawabata and Hitomu Kotani},
journal = {Progress in Disaster Science},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100762},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100762},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Cry wolf effect in flood early warning
AU - Yohei Sawada
AU - Ryota Yagi
AU - Takuya Kawabata
AU - Hitomu Kotani
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/30
JO - Progress in Disaster Science
DO - 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100762
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100762
AB - To maximize the potential of advanced flood early warning technologies, it is crucial to understand how effectively flood early warning systems (FEWS) induce preparedness actions from local government, enterprises, and the general public. Repeated false alarms can undermine the credibility of FEWS, making it difficult for stakeholders to take preparedness actions. Although quantifying this “cry wolf effect” is important to design effective FEWS (e.g., setting appropriate warning thresholds), few studies have explored its existence in the context of flood early warning. Can weather agencies become “The boy who cried wolf”? To answer this question, we developed a new dataset which allows for the analysis of the relationship between flood economic losses and weather warning outcomes in Japan from 2002 to 2022. Our multiple regression analysis reveals a statistically significant association of false alarms with flood economic loss: municipalities experiencing higher false alarm ratios over the past 6 to 24 months suffer greater economic damage from floods, holding all other factors constant. This study serves as an initial step toward a comprehensive understanding of the complex relationship between prediction accuracy, warning criteria, public trust in authorities, and preparedness actions against flooding.
SN - 2590-0617
ER -