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Peer-reviewedCC BYEnvironmental science & technology

Global Combustion CO2 Accounting Neglects the Origin of Traded Fossil Fuels.

  • Binyuan Liu1
  • Yuli Shan2
  • Yuru Guan2
  • Steven J Davis3
  • Ye Hang2
  • Liang Jing4
  • Xiande Ji1
  • Wenqiang Wang5
  • Klaus Hubacek1
5 affiliations
  1. 1Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen9747 AG, The Netherlands.
  2. 2School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences (GEES), University of Birmingham, BirminghamB15 2TT, U.K.
  3. 3Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, California94305, United States.
  4. 4Energy Sustainability Analysis, Technology Strategy and Planning Department, Saudi Aramco, Dhahran31311, Saudi Arabia.
  5. 5Institute of Blue and Green Development, Shandong University, Weihai264209, China.
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Abstract

Combustion CO2 emissions are commonly estimated by multiplying fuel consumption by the corresponding emission factors. However, national inventories may apply domestic factors to imported fuels, overlooking differences in fuel properties across extraction origins and creating discrepancies in emission estimates. Here, we trace fossil fuels to their countries of extraction and assign emission factors specific to the extraction country and fuel type. Using 2020 data for 150 countries and regions, we compare this origin-traced estimate with a nonorigin-traced control using the same energy-consumption data but combustion-country emission factors. Globally, the control estimate is 339.2 Mt of CO2 lower than the origin-traced estimate, equivalent to 1.0% of the origin-traced total, with coal accounting for 89.9% of the discrepancy. Although crude oil had the largest energy-based trade volume among primary fuels, oil-related fuels contributed less because their emission factors varied less across countries, particularly for refined petroleum products. Such discrepancies can be particularly consequential for highly import-dependent countries. For example, the national-level discrepancy exceeds 4% in India, which is a major fossil-fuel importer. Our origin-tracing approach can improve the accuracy of combustion CO2 estimates by assigning emission factors that better reflect the fuels actually consumed. This provides more robust emission information for assessing progress toward Nationally Determined Contributions.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{liu2026global,
  title = {{Global Combustion CO2 Accounting Neglects the Origin of Traded Fossil Fuels.}},
  author = {Binyuan Liu and Yuli Shan and Yuru Guan and Steven J Davis and Ye Hang and Liang Jing and Xiande Ji and Wenqiang Wang and Klaus Hubacek},
  journal = {Environmental science \& technology},
  year = {2026},
  month = sep,
  doi = {10.1021/acs.est.6c01630},
  url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42915388},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Global Combustion CO2 Accounting Neglects the Origin of Traded Fossil Fuels.
AU  - Binyuan Liu
AU  - Yuli Shan
AU  - Yuru Guan
AU  - Steven J Davis
AU  - Ye Hang
AU  - Liang Jing
AU  - Xiande Ji
AU  - Wenqiang Wang
AU  - Klaus Hubacek
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/01
JO  - Environmental science & technology
DO  - 10.1021/acs.est.6c01630
UR  - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42915388
AB  - Combustion CO2 emissions are commonly estimated by multiplying fuel consumption by the corresponding emission factors. However, national inventories may apply domestic factors to imported fuels, overlooking differences in fuel properties across extraction origins and creating discrepancies in emission estimates. Here, we trace fossil fuels to their countries of extraction and assign emission factors specific to the extraction country and fuel type. Using 2020 data for 150 countries and regions, we compare this origin-traced estimate with a nonorigin-traced control using the same energy-consumption data but combustion-country emission factors. Globally, the control estimate is 339.2 Mt of CO2 lower than the origin-traced estimate, equivalent to 1.0% of the origin-traced total, with coal accounting for 89.9% of the discrepancy. Although crude oil had the largest energy-based trade volume among primary fuels, oil-related fuels contributed less because their emission factors varied less across countries, particularly for refined petroleum products. Such discrepancies can be particularly consequential for highly import-dependent countries. For example, the national-level discrepancy exceeds 4% in India, which is a major fossil-fuel importer. Our origin-tracing approach can improve the accuracy of combustion CO2 estimates by assigning emission factors that better reflect the fuels actually consumed. This provides more robust emission information for assessing progress toward Nationally Determined Contributions.
SN  - 0013-936X
SN  - 1520-5851
ER  -