Rare deglacial-aged corals point to weaker El Niño in a colder world

Abstract

Extreme El Niño events, the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have increased in frequency since the late 20th century, intensifying concerns about ENSO’s response to a changing climate and its far-reaching impacts on global weather. Yet climate model projections of future ENSO behaviour remain divergent, and simulations under past glacial boundary conditions likewise lack consensus. Past climate simulations are distinctive in that they can be directly evaluated against subannually-resolved palaeoclimate archives; however, such archives remain scarce beyond the Holocene. Here we combine the first monthly-resolved, multidecadal fossil coral oxygen isotope records spanning the last deglaciation with new climate model experiments to evaluate ENSO amplitude and extreme event frequency under colder climates. The new coral data from Vanuatu – where a significant portion of interannual changes are driven by ENSO – reveal a reduction in interannual variance and extreme-event frequency ~12–15 thousand years ago relative to the late Holocene. The climate simulations reveal systematic increases in interannual variance and extreme-event frequency from the cold deglacial to the warm Holocene, with further intensification under anthropogenic warming. The concordance of natural archives with climate model simulations demonstrates a robust climate state dependence of ENSO and strengthens confidence in projections of more frequent extreme El Niño events in a warming future.

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BibTeX RIS

BibTeX

@misc{domeyko2026rare,
  title = {{Rare deglacial-aged corals point to weaker El Niño in a colder world}},
  author = {Robert Domeyko and Judson Partin and Yuko Okumura and Kaustubh Thirumalai and Pedro DiNezio and Allison Lawman and Frederick Taylor and Dunyu Liu and Lael Vetter and Christopher Maupin and Esline Garaebiti and Abel Kalo and Krisna Kotra and Lisa Zuraw and Hsun-Ming Hu and Mayuri Inoue and Larry Edwards and Chuan-Chou Shen},
  howpublished = {EarthArXiv},
  year = {2026},
  month = sep,
  doi = {10.31223/x5r50z},
  url = {https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/15195/},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}

RIS

TY  - UNPB
TI  - Rare deglacial-aged corals point to weaker El Niño in a colder world
AU  - Robert Domeyko
AU  - Judson Partin
AU  - Yuko Okumura
AU  - Kaustubh Thirumalai
AU  - Pedro DiNezio
AU  - Allison Lawman
AU  - Frederick Taylor
AU  - Dunyu Liu
AU  - Lael Vetter
AU  - Christopher Maupin
AU  - Esline Garaebiti
AU  - Abel Kalo
AU  - Krisna Kotra
AU  - Lisa Zuraw
AU  - Hsun-Ming Hu
AU  - Mayuri Inoue
AU  - Larry Edwards
AU  - Chuan-Chou Shen
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/25
PB  - EarthArXiv
DO  - 10.31223/x5r50z
UR  - https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/15195/
AB  - Extreme El Niño events, the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have increased in frequency since the late 20th century, intensifying concerns about ENSO’s response to a changing climate and its far-reaching impacts on global weather. Yet climate model projections of future ENSO behaviour remain divergent, and simulations under past glacial boundary conditions likewise lack consensus. Past climate simulations are distinctive in that they can be directly evaluated against subannually-resolved palaeoclimate archives; however, such archives remain scarce beyond the Holocene. Here we combine the first monthly-resolved, multidecadal fossil coral oxygen isotope records spanning the last deglaciation with new climate model experiments to evaluate ENSO amplitude and extreme event frequency under colder climates. The new coral data from Vanuatu – where a significant portion of interannual changes are driven by ENSO – reveal a reduction in interannual variance and extreme-event frequency ~12–15 thousand years ago relative to the late Holocene. The climate simulations reveal systematic increases in interannual variance and extreme-event frequency from the cold deglacial to the warm Holocene, with further intensification under anthropogenic warming. The concordance of natural archives with climate model simulations demonstrates a robust climate state dependence of ENSO and strengthens confidence in projections of more frequent extreme El Niño events in a warming future.
ER  -

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