BDPD³ — Governing the Signal, Not the Symptom: Leading-Indicator Regulation Prevents the Seneca Cascade in a Polycentric Commons
- 1Independent Researcher
Abstract
A polycentric commons in which one jurisdiction's industrial pollution flows downwind into its neighbours raises a governance question usually framed as which lever — a cap, a levy, a fine. Using the BDPD platform on a Bardi/Seneca three-variable engine (resource R, capital C, pollution P), we show the binding axis is not the lever but the trigger signal. Pollution is a lagging tail of the industrial boom: a regulator reacting to it is structurally too late, and the downwind victim is not saved. Arming the same cap on the capital stock — a leading, player-visible indicator — prevents the cascade AND rescues the emitter from its own Seneca cliff. A structural OFAT robustness sweep confirms the claims hold across the model's main parameters; the full win-win holds up to integration step dt ≤ 3.0.
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BibTeX
@misc{brunelli2026bdpd³,
title = {{BDPD³ — Governing the Signal, Not the Symptom: Leading-Indicator Regulation Prevents the Seneca Cascade in a Polycentric Commons}},
author = {Roberto Brunelli},
howpublished = {Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)},
year = {2026},
month = jun,
doi = {10.5281/zenodo.20680200},
url = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20680200},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - BDPD³ — Governing the Signal, Not the Symptom: Leading-Indicator Regulation Prevents the Seneca Cascade in a Polycentric Commons
AU - Roberto Brunelli
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/06/13
PB - Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
DO - 10.5281/zenodo.20680200
UR - https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20680200
AB - A polycentric commons in which one jurisdiction's industrial pollution flows downwind into its neighbours raises a governance question usually framed as which lever — a cap, a levy, a fine. Using the BDPD platform on a Bardi/Seneca three-variable engine (resource R, capital C, pollution P), we show the binding axis is not the lever but the trigger signal. Pollution is a lagging tail of the industrial boom: a regulator reacting to it is structurally too late, and the downwind victim is not saved. Arming the same cap on the capital stock — a leading, player-visible indicator — prevents the cascade AND rescues the emitter from its own Seneca cliff. A structural OFAT robustness sweep confirms the claims hold across the model's main parameters; the full win-win holds up to integration step dt ≤ 3.0.
ER -