LEO Constellation Analysis for Satellite IoT: An Analysis of Coverage Gaps and Retransmissions
Abstract
Low Earth Orbit (LEO) constellations are a promising way to connect Internet of Things (IoT) devices beyond terrestrial coverage, yet the intermittent visibility of their satellites imposes hard constraints on system and protocol design. Coverage probability and other snapshot statistics, which are often computed without accounting for the terminal's latitude, are insufficient for this purpose. Designers also need the temporal structure of coverage: the rate of coverage gaps, their duration distribution and mean, and quantities such as the probability that a retransmission succeeds after an initial transmission has failed. We develop an ergodic framework for Walker Star constellations in which these quantities reduce to spatial integrals over a two-dimensional torus that can be evaluated efficiently. We validate the framework against a seven-day Simplified General Perturbations 4 (SGP4) simulation of the Iridium NEXT constellation and find close agreement for the coverage probability, the revisit-time distribution, and the retransmission success probability. A comparison of Walker Star configurations further shows that constellations with similar satellite counts can yield substantially different packet-delivery probabilities with at most one retransmission, depending on the number of orbital planes. The results show that the ergodic model accurately gives the long-run values that finite time-domain simulations can only approximate, providing researchers with a tractable basis for the analytical modelling of IoT connectivity over non-terrestrial networks (NTN).
Related
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BibTeX
@misc{rombouts2026constellation,
title = {{LEO Constellation Analysis for Satellite IoT: An Analysis of Coverage Gaps and Retransmissions}},
author = {Lowie Rombouts and Jeroen Famaey and Roger Sanchez-Vital},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.41440},
eprint = {2610.41440},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41440},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - LEO Constellation Analysis for Satellite IoT: An Analysis of Coverage Gaps and Retransmissions
AU - Lowie Rombouts
AU - Jeroen Famaey
AU - Roger Sanchez-Vital
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/30
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.41440
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41440
AB - Low Earth Orbit (LEO) constellations are a promising way to connect Internet of Things (IoT) devices beyond terrestrial coverage, yet the intermittent visibility of their satellites imposes hard constraints on system and protocol design. Coverage probability and other snapshot statistics, which are often computed without accounting for the terminal's latitude, are insufficient for this purpose. Designers also need the temporal structure of coverage: the rate of coverage gaps, their duration distribution and mean, and quantities such as the probability that a retransmission succeeds after an initial transmission has failed. We develop an ergodic framework for Walker Star constellations in which these quantities reduce to spatial integrals over a two-dimensional torus that can be evaluated efficiently. We validate the framework against a seven-day Simplified General Perturbations 4 (SGP4) simulation of the Iridium NEXT constellation and find close agreement for the coverage probability, the revisit-time distribution, and the retransmission success probability. A comparison of Walker Star configurations further shows that constellations with similar satellite counts can yield substantially different packet-delivery probabilities with at most one retransmission, depending on the number of orbital planes. The results show that the ergodic model accurately gives the long-run values that finite time-domain simulations can only approximate, providing researchers with a tractable basis for the analytical modelling of IoT connectivity over non-terrestrial networks (NTN).
ER -