Spatiotemporal analysis of insecticide-treated bednet coverage, age and type in Africa from 2006-2024
Abstract
Since their rapid adoption from the mid 2000s, insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) have been one of the most impactful malaria interventions in Africa. Facing insecticide resistance and ever-increasing resource constraints, there is a growing need to revise previous modelling efforts of ITN coverage to better reflect the current epidemiological reality. Comprehensive estimates of ITN coverage must account for factors such as net type, net age, and user behaviours. By leveraging improved data availability, we propose a mathematically rigorous ITN coverage model that extends previous national-level models to the subnational level across 44 countries in Africa. The presented Multitype-ITN (MITN) model is used to construct longitudinal estimates of net demography by age and type from 2006-2024, and provide insights on potential sources of ITN distribution inefficiencies. Our findings show a significant increase in the uptake of next-generation ITNs, reflecting an increasingly diverse market. However, longitudinal trends suggests stagnation in key metrics of net coverage (nets-per-capita, access and use), alongside a downwards trend in utilisation – number of users per net, coupled with observed stationary use rates – proportion of people with access that also use nets. There are also early signs of interventions failing to meet the demands of increasing populations.
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BibTeX
@article{tan2026spatiotemporal,
title = {{Spatiotemporal analysis of insecticide-treated bednet coverage, age and type in Africa from 2006-2024}},
author = {Eugene Tan and Mauricio van den Berg and Adam Saddler and Camilo Vargas and Daniel J. Weiss and Amelia Bertozzi-Villa and Samir Bhatt and Tasmin L. Symons and Peter W. Gething},
journal = {Nature Communications},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1038/s41467-026-78456-2},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-78456-2},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Spatiotemporal analysis of insecticide-treated bednet coverage, age and type in Africa from 2006-2024
AU - Eugene Tan
AU - Mauricio van den Berg
AU - Adam Saddler
AU - Camilo Vargas
AU - Daniel J. Weiss
AU - Amelia Bertozzi-Villa
AU - Samir Bhatt
AU - Tasmin L. Symons
AU - Peter W. Gething
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/21
JO - Nature Communications
DO - 10.1038/s41467-026-78456-2
UR - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-78456-2
AB - Since their rapid adoption from the mid 2000s, insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) have been one of the most impactful malaria interventions in Africa. Facing insecticide resistance and ever-increasing resource constraints, there is a growing need to revise previous modelling efforts of ITN coverage to better reflect the current epidemiological reality. Comprehensive estimates of ITN coverage must account for factors such as net type, net age, and user behaviours. By leveraging improved data availability, we propose a mathematically rigorous ITN coverage model that extends previous national-level models to the subnational level across 44 countries in Africa. The presented Multitype-ITN (MITN) model is used to construct longitudinal estimates of net demography by age and type from 2006-2024, and provide insights on potential sources of ITN distribution inefficiencies. Our findings show a significant increase in the uptake of next-generation ITNs, reflecting an increasingly diverse market. However, longitudinal trends suggests stagnation in key metrics of net coverage (nets-per-capita, access and use), alongside a downwards trend in utilisation – number of users per net, coupled with observed stationary use rates – proportion of people with access that also use nets. There are also early signs of interventions failing to meet the demands of increasing populations.
SN - 2041-1723
ER -