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Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Environmental Research Letters

Victoria mode drives the strengthening of tropical Atlantic SST influence on El Niño-Southern oscillation since the mid-20th century

  • Yuqiong Zheng1
  • Shangfeng Chen2
  • Jong-Seong Kug3
  • Zhibiao Wang2
  • Hailong Liu1
  • Yuehua Li1
  • Zhouji Wang4
  • Wen Chen1
4 affiliations
  1. 1Yunnan University
  2. 2Chinese Academy of Sciences
  3. 3Seoul National University
  4. 4Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Abstract

Spring tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies serve as an important precursor of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) development in the following winter. The influence of TNA SST on ENSO has strengthened significantly since the mid-20th century, yet the underlying mechanism remains unclear. Using large-ensemble simulations, AGCM experiments, and the Peter–Clark Momentary Conditional Independence algorithm, we demonstrate that the North Pacific Victoria Mode (VM) is the key modulator of the recent enhancement of TNA SST influence on ENSO. Since the mid-20th century, the North Pacific climate state has shifted toward the negative VM phase, strengthening northeasterly trade winds and enhancing wind–evaporation–SST feedback over the subtropical northeastern Pacific. This background change amplifies the subtropical Pacific SST response to TNA-induced atmospheric anomalies, facilitating their subsequent extension into the tropical Pacific through wind–evaporation–SST feedback and ultimately modulate ENSO development via tropical air–sea interaction. Our results reveal that decadal variation in the North Pacific climate system substantially modulates the tropical Atlantic–ENSO teleconnection.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{zheng2026victoria,
  title = {{Victoria mode drives the strengthening of tropical Atlantic SST influence on El Niño-Southern oscillation since the mid-20th century}},
  author = {Yuqiong Zheng and Shangfeng Chen and Jong-Seong Kug and Zhibiao Wang and Hailong Liu and Yuehua Li and Zhouji Wang and Wen Chen},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aeba9f},
  url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeba9f},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Victoria mode drives the strengthening of tropical Atlantic SST influence on El Niño-Southern oscillation since the mid-20th century
AU  - Yuqiong Zheng
AU  - Shangfeng Chen
AU  - Jong-Seong Kug
AU  - Zhibiao Wang
AU  - Hailong Liu
AU  - Yuehua Li
AU  - Zhouji Wang
AU  - Wen Chen
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/28
JO  - Environmental Research Letters
DO  - 10.1088/1748-9326/aeba9f
UR  - https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeba9f
AB  - Spring tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies serve as an important precursor of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) development in the following winter. The influence of TNA SST on ENSO has strengthened significantly since the mid-20th century, yet the underlying mechanism remains unclear. Using large-ensemble simulations, AGCM experiments, and the Peter–Clark Momentary Conditional Independence algorithm, we demonstrate that the North Pacific Victoria Mode (VM) is the key modulator of the recent enhancement of TNA SST influence on ENSO. Since the mid-20th century, the North Pacific climate state has shifted toward the negative VM phase, strengthening northeasterly trade winds and enhancing wind–evaporation–SST feedback over the subtropical northeastern Pacific. This background change amplifies the subtropical Pacific SST response to TNA-induced atmospheric anomalies, facilitating their subsequent extension into the tropical Pacific through wind–evaporation–SST feedback and ultimately modulate ENSO development via tropical air–sea interaction. Our results reveal that decadal variation in the North Pacific climate system substantially modulates the tropical Atlantic–ENSO teleconnection.
SN  - 1748-9326
ER  -