Eating less of the same: modelled nutrient gaps on GLP-1 drugs
- 1Independent researcher, x9m8.com, New York, NY, USA
Abstract
GLP-1 receptor agonists cut food intake by 16% to 39% in trials, and the little evidence on what users eat suggests they eat less of the same diet rather than a different one. I modelled the consequences for nutrient adequacy in eligible US adults. Using two 24-hour recalls from NHANES August 2021–August 2023 (n = 2,134 adults with BMI ≥30, or ≥27 with diabetes or hypertension; about 115 million people), I estimated usual intake, cut every food proportionally by the reductions measured in trials, and compared the result with the Estimated Average Requirement. On their current diets, 8.4% of eligible adults ate less protein than the requirement for their height, 32.4% less zinc, 27.5% less folate and 56.4% less calcium. At a 24% cut those shares rose to 26.9%, 67.2%, 56.8% and 78.6%; at 35%, to 45.7%, 83.3%, 74.1% and 86.8%. On average, eligible adults fell below the requirement for 3.1 of 8 nutrients at baseline and 4.9 at a 24% cut. At a 24% cut only 6.5% would reach 1.2 g of protein per kg of reference weight. Supplements, available in the 2017–2020 data, narrowed but did not close the gaps. In this model, eating less without eating differently leaves most eligible adults short of several nutrients.
Preprint, not peer reviewed. Also published at https://x9m8.com/glp1-nutrient-gaps-eating-less-nhanes/. The zip file contains the code, results and the two independent audits.
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BibTeX
@misc{kalafatis2026eating,
title = {{Eating less of the same: modelled nutrient gaps on GLP-1 drugs}},
author = {Peter Kalafatis},
howpublished = {Zenodo},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.5281/zenodo.23751512},
url = {https://zenodo.org/records/23751512},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Eating less of the same: modelled nutrient gaps on GLP-1 drugs
AU - Peter Kalafatis
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/24
PB - Zenodo
DO - 10.5281/zenodo.23751512
UR - https://zenodo.org/records/23751512
AB - GLP-1 receptor agonists cut food intake by 16% to 39% in trials, and the little evidence on what users eat suggests they eat less of the same diet rather than a different one. I modelled the consequences for nutrient adequacy in eligible US adults. Using two 24-hour recalls from NHANES August 2021–August 2023 (n = 2,134 adults with BMI ≥30, or ≥27 with diabetes or hypertension; about 115 million people), I estimated usual intake, cut every food proportionally by the reductions measured in trials, and compared the result with the Estimated Average Requirement. On their current diets, 8.4% of eligible adults ate less protein than the requirement for their height, 32.4% less zinc, 27.5% less folate and 56.4% less calcium. At a 24% cut those shares rose to 26.9%, 67.2%, 56.8% and 78.6%; at 35%, to 45.7%, 83.3%, 74.1% and 86.8%. On average, eligible adults fell below the requirement for 3.1 of 8 nutrients at baseline and 4.9 at a 24% cut. At a 24% cut only 6.5% would reach 1.2 g of protein per kg of reference weight. Supplements, available in the 2017–2020 data, narrowed but did not close the gaps. In this model, eating less without eating differently leaves most eligible adults short of several nutrients. Preprint, not peer reviewed. Also published at https://x9m8.com/glp1-nutrient-gaps-eating-less-nhanes/. The zip file contains the code, results and the two independent audits.
ER -