Lurker Ecology: Rival Embedded Probes and a Falsifiable Resolution of the Fermi Paradox

Abstract

Preprint. Also available on SSRN at https://ssrn.com/abstract=7668018 (DOI 10.2139/ssrn.7668018). Prepared for submission to Acta Astronautica.

If technological civilizations are common, every explanation of the Great Silence either lacks enforcement and fails when a few civilizations deviate, or adds local automated enforcement and becomes a hypothesis about resident self-replicating probes ("lurkers"); zoo, aestivation and dark forest then differ only in trigger settings. Because the window in which a civilization can be suppressed is short compared with light-lag, and fast strikes are visible, the enforcer must already be in the system. Rival lurker lineages face a volunteer's dilemma whose equilibrium is restraint, so crowding protects a nascent civilization; survivors seed lineages of their own, so late civilizations are better protected. Earth's survival admits four branches, each with observational consequences: a census of oxygen worlds and an excess of impact scars among technosignature planets.

Manuscript source, figures and the lineage-dynamics simulation code are at https://github.com/novalis78/lurker-ecology (manuscript CC BY 4.0, code MIT).

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BibTeX RIS

BibTeX

@misc{lopin2026lurker,
  title = {{Lurker Ecology: Rival Embedded Probes and a Falsifiable Resolution of the Fermi Paradox}},
  author = {Lennart Lopin},
  howpublished = {Zenodo},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.2139/ssrn.7668018},
  url = {https://zenodo.org/records/23861346},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}

RIS

TY  - UNPB
TI  - Lurker Ecology: Rival Embedded Probes and a Falsifiable Resolution of the Fermi Paradox
AU  - Lennart Lopin
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/25
PB  - Zenodo
DO  - 10.2139/ssrn.7668018
UR  - https://zenodo.org/records/23861346
AB  - Preprint. Also available on SSRN at https://ssrn.com/abstract=7668018 (DOI 10.2139/ssrn.7668018). Prepared for submission to Acta Astronautica.  If technological civilizations are common, every explanation of the Great Silence either lacks enforcement and fails when a few civilizations deviate, or adds local automated enforcement and becomes a hypothesis about resident self-replicating probes ("lurkers"); zoo, aestivation and dark forest then differ only in trigger settings. Because the window in which a civilization can be suppressed is short compared with light-lag, and fast strikes are visible, the enforcer must already be in the system. Rival lurker lineages face a volunteer's dilemma whose equilibrium is restraint, so crowding protects a nascent civilization; survivors seed lineages of their own, so late civilizations are better protected. Earth's survival admits four branches, each with observational consequences: a census of oxygen worlds and an excess of impact scars among technosignature planets.  Manuscript source, figures and the lineage-dynamics simulation code are at https://github.com/novalis78/lurker-ecology (manuscript CC BY 4.0, code MIT).
ER  -

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