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Peer-reviewedCC BYNature Communications

Assessing grid affordability for universal electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa

  • Yidan Kou1
  • Stephanie A. Hirmer2
  • Pu Yang3
  • Alycia Leonard1
  • Florian Egli4,5
5 affiliations
  1. 1Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
  2. 2Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. [email protected]
  3. 3Institute of Sustainable Resources, The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, London, UK
  4. 4School of Management, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany. [email protected]
  5. 5School of Social Sciences and Technology, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany. [email protected]
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Abstract

Grid expansion remains a key strategy for increasing electricity access across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, whether utilities can generate sufficient revenue under current tariffs to support capital investment is unclear. We compile a comprehensive dataset of residential electricity tariffs for 48 SSA countries and develop a standardized model to estimate electricity bills using the Multi-Tier Framework (MTF). Affordability is assessed across income percentiles using simulated income distributions. Under current tariffs, around 608 million people (50%) may not afford Tier 4 electricity, rising to 1.05 billion (85%) for Tier 5 under a 10% energy-poverty threshold. Sensitivity analyses using 5% and 15% thresholds confirm the robustness of these findings. Even where higher-tier electricity is affordable, usage remains low. Combining affordability estimates with utility financial performance, we identify where grid expansion could be viable and where affordability constraints and utility deficits can create electrification traps. In many countries, off-grid solutions may be the only feasible pathway to achieving SDG7.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{kou2026assessing,
  title = {{Assessing grid affordability for universal electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa}},
  author = {Yidan Kou and Stephanie A. Hirmer and Pu Yang and Alycia Leonard and Florian Egli},
  journal = {Nature Communications},
  year = {2026},
  month = jul,
  doi = {10.1038/s41467-026-75104-7},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-75104-7},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Assessing grid affordability for universal electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa
AU  - Yidan Kou
AU  - Stephanie A. Hirmer
AU  - Pu Yang
AU  - Alycia Leonard
AU  - Florian Egli
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/07/09
JO  - Nature Communications
DO  - 10.1038/s41467-026-75104-7
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-75104-7
AB  - Grid expansion remains a key strategy for increasing electricity access across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, whether utilities can generate sufficient revenue under current tariffs to support capital investment is unclear. We compile a comprehensive dataset of residential electricity tariffs for 48 SSA countries and develop a standardized model to estimate electricity bills using the Multi-Tier Framework (MTF). Affordability is assessed across income percentiles using simulated income distributions. Under current tariffs, around 608 million people (50%) may not afford Tier 4 electricity, rising to 1.05 billion (85%) for Tier 5 under a 10% energy-poverty threshold. Sensitivity analyses using 5% and 15% thresholds confirm the robustness of these findings. Even where higher-tier electricity is affordable, usage remains low. Combining affordability estimates with utility financial performance, we identify where grid expansion could be viable and where affordability constraints and utility deficits can create electrification traps. In many countries, off-grid solutions may be the only feasible pathway to achieving SDG7.
SN  - 2041-1723
ER  -