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Peer-reviewedCC BYnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science

Revisiting the mechanisms for the observed decrease in inner-core tropical cyclone precipitation

  • Wenchao Chu1
  • Jorge L. García-Franco1
  • Suzana J. Camargo1
  • Chia-Ying Lee1
  • Michael K. Tippett2
  1. 1Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University
  2. 2Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University
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Abstract

Tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) is expected to intensify under global warming, yet recent observations show a decline in annual inner-core TCP. Here, we revisit this observed trend and its underlying mechanisms. By incorporating multiple observational datasets, we find the decreasing trend is robust across different products. However, previous explanations fail to fully explain this trend. Using a simple TCP model, we demonstrate that the inner-core TCP decrease is primarily driven by a declining trend in annual mean maximum wind speed, accompanied by an increasing trend in the annual mean radius of maximum wind. A shift in TC intensity distribution, with more tropical storms and fewer Category 1–2 and Category 3–5 TCs, explains the reduction in annual mean maximum wind speed.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{chu2026revisiting,
  title = {{Revisiting the mechanisms for the observed decrease in inner-core tropical cyclone precipitation}},
  author = {Wenchao Chu and Jorge L. García-Franco and Suzana J. Camargo and Chia-Ying Lee and Michael K. Tippett},
  journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
  year = {2026},
  month = jun,
  doi = {10.1038/s41612-026-01468-8},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01468-8},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Revisiting the mechanisms for the observed decrease in inner-core tropical cyclone precipitation
AU  - Wenchao Chu
AU  - Jorge L. García-Franco
AU  - Suzana J. Camargo
AU  - Chia-Ying Lee
AU  - Michael K. Tippett
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/06/01
JO  - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
DO  - 10.1038/s41612-026-01468-8
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01468-8
AB  - Tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) is expected to intensify under global warming, yet recent observations show a decline in annual inner-core TCP. Here, we revisit this observed trend and its underlying mechanisms. By incorporating multiple observational datasets, we find the decreasing trend is robust across different products. However, previous explanations fail to fully explain this trend. Using a simple TCP model, we demonstrate that the inner-core TCP decrease is primarily driven by a declining trend in annual mean maximum wind speed, accompanied by an increasing trend in the annual mean radius of maximum wind. A shift in TC intensity distribution, with more tropical storms and fewer Category 1–2 and Category 3–5 TCs, explains the reduction in annual mean maximum wind speed.
SN  - 2397-3722
ER  -