Disease Burden and Mortality of Ischemic Heart Disease in China from 2008 to 2036.
- 1Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Chongqing University Central Hospital, Yu zhong District, Chongqing, 400014, China.
- 2Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Chongqing University Central Hospital, Yu zhong District, Chongqing, 400014, China. [email protected].
- 3Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Chongqing University Central Hospital, Yu zhong District, Chongqing, 400014, China. [email protected].
Abstract
Background and aims
To examine long-term trends and population subgroup differences in ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality and disease burden in China from 2008 to 2021, and to project future trends to inform targeted prevention.Methods
Using the China Cause-of-Death Surveillance Dataset (2008-2021), we calculated crude mortality rate (CMR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), potential years of life lost (PYLL), and potential years of life lost rate (PYLLR). Temporal trends were quantified using Joinpoint regression, with results expressed as the average annual percentage change (AAPC). Age, period, and cohort effects were assessed with an age-period-cohort (APC) model. ASMR from 2022 to 2036 were forecasted by ARIMA model.Results
In 2008, the CMR and ASMR for IHD in China was 70.98/100,000 and 79.32/100,000; In 2021, the CMR and ASMR was 143.70/100,000 and 89.12/100,000. From 2008 to 2021, the overall ASMR trend showed no statistically significant change (AAPC = 0.75%, P = 0.63), whereas PYLLR rose significantly (AAPC = 2.01, P < 0.001). IHD ASMR and PYLLR were higher in males than females (P < 0.001), in rural than urban (P < 0.001), and in the central region than eastern region and western region (P < 0.001). APC analysis identified age effect as the predominant driver of IHD mortality risk. ARIMA projections indicated that IHD ASMR would remain largely stable through 2036.Conclusion
China's substantial IHD burden demands prioritized primary prevention targeting younger populations, older adults, males, and rural residents. Multisectoral IHD risk-factor interventions should be integrated into national health policy to curb the rising burden.
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BibTeX
@article{yang2026disease,
title = {{Disease Burden and Mortality of Ischemic Heart Disease in China from 2008 to 2036.}},
author = {Yanpeng Yang and Xueyuan Long and Ke Zhou and Hao Wang},
journal = {Journal of epidemiology and global health},
year = {2026},
month = jul,
doi = {10.1007/s44197-026-00618-8},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42972148},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Disease Burden and Mortality of Ischemic Heart Disease in China from 2008 to 2036.
AU - Yanpeng Yang
AU - Xueyuan Long
AU - Ke Zhou
AU - Hao Wang
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/07/31
JO - Journal of epidemiology and global health
DO - 10.1007/s44197-026-00618-8
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42972148
AB - Background and aims To examine long-term trends and population subgroup differences in ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality and disease burden in China from 2008 to 2021, and to project future trends to inform targeted prevention.Methods Using the China Cause-of-Death Surveillance Dataset (2008-2021), we calculated crude mortality rate (CMR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), potential years of life lost (PYLL), and potential years of life lost rate (PYLLR). Temporal trends were quantified using Joinpoint regression, with results expressed as the average annual percentage change (AAPC). Age, period, and cohort effects were assessed with an age-period-cohort (APC) model. ASMR from 2022 to 2036 were forecasted by ARIMA model.Results In 2008, the CMR and ASMR for IHD in China was 70.98/100,000 and 79.32/100,000; In 2021, the CMR and ASMR was 143.70/100,000 and 89.12/100,000. From 2008 to 2021, the overall ASMR trend showed no statistically significant change (AAPC = 0.75%, P = 0.63), whereas PYLLR rose significantly (AAPC = 2.01, P < 0.001). IHD ASMR and PYLLR were higher in males than females (P < 0.001), in rural than urban (P < 0.001), and in the central region than eastern region and western region (P < 0.001). APC analysis identified age effect as the predominant driver of IHD mortality risk. ARIMA projections indicated that IHD ASMR would remain largely stable through 2036.Conclusion China's substantial IHD burden demands prioritized primary prevention targeting younger populations, older adults, males, and rural residents. Multisectoral IHD risk-factor interventions should be integrated into national health policy to curb the rising burden.
SN - 2210-6006
SN - 2210-6014
ER -