Modelling future collapse risk of aapa mires across a boreal climate gradient
5 affiliations
- 1Centre for Ecosystem Science, School of Biological, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, Australia; Data Science Hub, University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, Australia; Corresponding author at: Centre for Ecosystem Science, School of Biological, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, Australia.
- 2Nature Solutions Unit, Finnish Environment Institute, Yliopistokatu 6 B, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland
- 3Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, P. O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland
- 4College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville 4811, Australia
- 5Centre for Ecosystem Science, School of Biological, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, Australia
Abstract
Northern peatlands provide critical ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration that mitigates climate change. Warming and land use threaten many peatlands, but a unique subclass of peatlands called aapa mires are currently listed as Least Concern in Europe. We aimed to evaluate risk for aapa mires in Finland using newly available datasets. We developed a new remote sensing-based indicator of aapa mire degradation and used forecasting models integrating climate change, hydrology, and peat mining scenarios to estimate trajectories of degradation in mire ecosystems to 2099. We modelled 120 Finnish aapa mires across three climate zones and used our results to assess risk against the global standard IUCN Red List of Ecosystems (RLE) criteria. We found substantial historical degradation, although this has slowed with the cessation of unsustainable land use practices since the late 1900s. Projected climate change produced moderately elevated risk; however, risk increased rapidly under intensifying peat mining scenarios. Aapa mires in the south boreal region had the highest risk of collapse, with a mean probability of collapse of 20.3% over a 50-year period (2025 to 2075), compared to 5.0% in the middle boreal and 1.6% in the northern boreal zones. Under the RLE criteria, northern and middle-boreal mires were Vulnerable and southern mires were Critically Endangered under Criterion C3 (historical environmental degradation). Conservation of core areas, refraining from mining, and restoration of degraded sites are essential, as remaining aapa mires provide critical wildlife refugia, and those undergoing natural succession processes offer climate mitigation potential.
Related
- Multi-factor assessment of future climate hazards to apple production across Switzerland’s growing regions
- Metabolic collapse as a mechanism of developmental regression: convergent evidence from Kleefstra syndrome FDG-PET/CT imaging and Drosophila modelling
- Climate change and human activities shape future risks of Bactrocera dorsalis
- Perceptions of Climate Change Risk and Place Attachment: Parallel Indirect Associations Through In-Visit Evaluations of Memorable Tourism Experience and the Perceived Future Benefits of Edible Insects
- Editorial for the Second EJP SOIL Special Issue: “Climate‐Smart Sustainable Agricultural Soil Management for the Future II”
BibTeX
@article{toth2026modelling,
title = {{Modelling future collapse risk of aapa mires across a boreal climate gradient}},
author = {Anikó B. Tóth and Antti Sallinen and Tiina H.M. Kolari and Nicholas J. Murray and David A. Keith and Teemu Tahvanainen},
journal = {Ecological Indicators},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115703},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115703},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Modelling future collapse risk of aapa mires across a boreal climate gradient
AU - Anikó B. Tóth
AU - Antti Sallinen
AU - Tiina H.M. Kolari
AU - Nicholas J. Murray
AU - David A. Keith
AU - Teemu Tahvanainen
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/30
JO - Ecological Indicators
DO - 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115703
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115703
AB - Northern peatlands provide critical ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration that mitigates climate change. Warming and land use threaten many peatlands, but a unique subclass of peatlands called aapa mires are currently listed as Least Concern in Europe. We aimed to evaluate risk for aapa mires in Finland using newly available datasets. We developed a new remote sensing-based indicator of aapa mire degradation and used forecasting models integrating climate change, hydrology, and peat mining scenarios to estimate trajectories of degradation in mire ecosystems to 2099. We modelled 120 Finnish aapa mires across three climate zones and used our results to assess risk against the global standard IUCN Red List of Ecosystems (RLE) criteria. We found substantial historical degradation, although this has slowed with the cessation of unsustainable land use practices since the late 1900s. Projected climate change produced moderately elevated risk; however, risk increased rapidly under intensifying peat mining scenarios. Aapa mires in the south boreal region had the highest risk of collapse, with a mean probability of collapse of 20.3% over a 50-year period (2025 to 2075), compared to 5.0% in the middle boreal and 1.6% in the northern boreal zones. Under the RLE criteria, northern and middle-boreal mires were Vulnerable and southern mires were Critically Endangered under Criterion C3 (historical environmental degradation). Conservation of core areas, refraining from mining, and restoration of degraded sites are essential, as remaining aapa mires provide critical wildlife refugia, and those undergoing natural succession processes offer climate mitigation potential.
SN - 1470-160X
SN - 1872-7034
ER -