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PreprintarXiv licencearXiv

Functional Inference for the Mean Curve of Intraday Spot Correlation

Abstract

In this paper, we propose estimators for the mean of the daily spot-correlation curves, which are robust to the presence of finite-variation jumps in the price processes. The related feasible functional central limit theorems for the proposed estimators have been established under a joint infill and long-span setting. Based on the asymptotic theory, we develop a test procedure for flatness of the curves. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the strong finite-sample performance of the estimators. In an empirical application to 30 U.S. stocks from 2010 to 2019, we find a pronounced end-of-day surge in the mean of correlation curves across diverse stock groupings, alongside substantial calendar-time non-flatness in the curves.

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BibTeX
@misc{guo2026functional,
  title = {{Functional Inference for the Mean Curve of Intraday Spot Correlation}},
  author = {Aodong Guo and Yu Jiang and Zhi Liu},
  howpublished = {arXiv},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.31208},
  eprint = {2610.31208},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.31208},
}
RIS
TY  - UNPB
TI  - Functional Inference for the Mean Curve of Intraday Spot Correlation
AU  - Aodong Guo
AU  - Yu Jiang
AU  - Zhi Liu
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/22
PB  - arXiv
DO  - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.31208
UR  - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.31208
AB  - In this paper, we propose estimators for the mean of the daily spot-correlation curves, which are robust to the presence of finite-variation jumps in the price processes. The related feasible functional central limit theorems for the proposed estimators have been established under a joint infill and long-span setting. Based on the asymptotic theory, we develop a test procedure for flatness of the curves. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the strong finite-sample performance of the estimators. In an empirical application to 30 U.S. stocks from 2010 to 2019, we find a pronounced end-of-day surge in the mean of correlation curves across diverse stock groupings, alongside substantial calendar-time non-flatness in the curves.
ER  -