Factors Associated with Divergent Introgression Outcomes from Wolbachia-Based Interventions in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- 1Yale University School of Public Health
Abstract
Wolbachia-based interventions were less effective in achieving introgression in Rio de Janeiro than other settings. Reduced introgression occurred in locations where dengue was historically high, raising concerns of inequity. We examined factors affecting Wolbachia introgression in Rio through trajectory modeling, spatiotemporal Bayesian models, and Ae. aegypti abundance estimation. During the intervention (2017-2020), Wolbachia introgression was 26% (median; IQR,14-44%), with four distinct trajectories. Despite receiving more releases, densely populated areas with low socioeconomic status had lower introgression. In spatiotemporally explicit multivariable regressions, higher Ae. aegypti abundance, temperature, population density and lower socioeconomic status were associated with reduced introgression. Improved characterization of Ae. aegypti abundance and other structural/environmental predictors of introgression could be used to calibrate release doses to ensure equitable benefits from Wolbachia interventions.
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BibTeX
@misc{nelson2026factors,
title = {{Factors Associated with Divergent Introgression Outcomes from Wolbachia-Based Interventions in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil}},
author = {E. Nelson and P. M. Carcamo and G. Ribeiro dos Santos and G. Sylvestre Ribeiro and T. Rodrigues da Costa and I. Ilaria Dorigatti and H. Salje and L. A. Moreira and D. A. T. Cummings and A. I. Ko},
howpublished = {medRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.64898/2026.10.16.26365711},
url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.16.26365711v1},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Factors Associated with Divergent Introgression Outcomes from Wolbachia-Based Interventions in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
AU - E. Nelson
AU - P. M. Carcamo
AU - G. Ribeiro dos Santos
AU - G. Sylvestre Ribeiro
AU - T. Rodrigues da Costa
AU - I. Ilaria Dorigatti
AU - H. Salje
AU - L. A. Moreira
AU - D. A. T. Cummings
AU - A. I. Ko
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/16
PB - medRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.10.16.26365711
UR - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.16.26365711v1
AB - Wolbachia-based interventions were less effective in achieving introgression in Rio de Janeiro than other settings. Reduced introgression occurred in locations where dengue was historically high, raising concerns of inequity. We examined factors affecting Wolbachia introgression in Rio through trajectory modeling, spatiotemporal Bayesian models, and Ae. aegypti abundance estimation. During the intervention (2017-2020), Wolbachia introgression was 26% (median; IQR,14-44%), with four distinct trajectories. Despite receiving more releases, densely populated areas with low socioeconomic status had lower introgression. In spatiotemporally explicit multivariable regressions, higher Ae. aegypti abundance, temperature, population density and lower socioeconomic status were associated with reduced introgression. Improved characterization of Ae. aegypti abundance and other structural/environmental predictors of introgression could be used to calibrate release doses to ensure equitable benefits from Wolbachia interventions.
ER -