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Peer-reviewedCC BYAtmospheric chemistry and physics

Updated global and regional trends of stratospheric ozone profiles

  • Viktoria Sofieva1
  • Monika E. Szeląg2
  • N. A. Kramarova3
  • Robert Damadeo4
  • Wolfgang Steinbrecht5
  • Irina V. Petropavlovskikh6,7
  • Corinne Vigouroux8
  • Eliane Maillard Barras9
  • Daniel J Zawada10
  • Kleareti Tourpali11
  • Stacey M. Frith12,3
  • Jeannette Wild13,14
19 more authors
  • Sean Davis15
  • Carlo Arosio16
  • Mark C. Weber16
  • Alexei V. Rozanov16
  • Brian Auffarth16
  • Lucien Froidevaux17,18
  • Ryan Fuller17
  • Doug Degenstein10
  • Kimberlee Robyn Dubé10
  • Peter Effertz6,7
  • Thierry Leblanc19
  • Gerard M. Ancellet20
  • Sophie M. Godin-Beekmann20
  • Glen McConville6,7
  • Richard Querel21
  • Dan Smale21
  • Marie-Renee DeBacker22
  • Emmanuel Mahieu23
  • Ralf Sussmann24
24 affiliations
  1. 1Finnish Meteorological Institute (Helsinki, Finland)
  2. 2Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
  3. 3NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
  4. 4NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA
  5. 5DWD (German Weather Service), Hohenpeissenberg, Germany
  6. 6Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science (CIRES), University of Colorado-Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
  7. 7NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
  8. 8Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB), Uccle, Belgium
  9. 9Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology , MeteoSwiss , Payerne , Switzerland
  10. 10Institute of Space and Atmospheric Studies, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada
  11. 11Aristotle University, Thessaloniki, Greece
  12. 12Adnet Systems, Inc., Lanham, MD USA
  13. 13Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC/CISESS), University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
  14. 14NOAA/NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR), College Park, MD, USA
  15. 15NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
  16. 16Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
  17. 17Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
  18. 18retired
  19. 19Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Wrightwood, CA, USA
  20. 20Laboratoire Atmosphères Observations Spatiales (LATMOS/IPSL), Sorbonne Université, UVSQ, CNRS, Paris, France
  21. 21New Zealand Institute for Earth Science Limited, Lauder, New Zealand
  22. 22Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne, Reims, France
  23. 23Department of Astrophysics, Geophysics and Oceanography, UR SPHERES, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
  24. 24Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), IMK-IFU, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
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Abstract

We present an updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60°S–60°N latitude range using long-term ground-based and satellite climate data records, as well as simulations by chemistry-climate models. The trends are evaluated using the LOTUS (Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere) regression model. Analyses of satellite data confirm statistically significant positive ozone trends in the period 2000–2024 in the upper stratosphere of ~1–3% decade-1, with larger trends at mid-latitudes compared to the tropics. The trends are slightly positive or close to zero in the middle stratosphere, and mostly negative, −1–2% decade-1, in the lower stratosphere; but they are not statistically significant. The ozone trends are similar to previous analyses (2000–2020 trends). Ozone trends in 2000–2024 predicted by climate model simulations are in good agreement with combined satellite trends. In the upper stratosphere, models predict a slightly stronger ozone recovery than observations. In the lower stratosphere, both models and satellite observations report negative trends of in the tropics, while modelled ozone trends are slightly positive at mid-latitudes. Ozone profile trends over several stations estimated from ground-based records capture the same overall vertical pattern of ozone trends as merged gridded satellite datasets. Analyses of regional ozone trends in 2003–2024 using merged satellite datasets confirmed the previous observations of a longitudinal structure in ozone trends in the NH mid-latitude stratosphere, with positive trends over Scandinavia and negative trends over Siberia. However, the magnitude of this dipole-like structure is reduced compared to previous analyses.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{sofieva2026updated,
  title = {{Updated global and regional trends of stratospheric ozone profiles}},
  author = {Viktoria Sofieva and Monika E. Szeląg and N. A. Kramarova and Robert Damadeo and Wolfgang Steinbrecht and Irina V. Petropavlovskikh and Corinne Vigouroux and Eliane Maillard Barras and Daniel J Zawada and Kleareti Tourpali and Stacey M. Frith and Jeannette Wild and Sean Davis and Carlo Arosio and Mark C. Weber and Alexei V. Rozanov and Brian Auffarth and Lucien Froidevaux and Ryan Fuller and Doug Degenstein and Kimberlee Robyn Dubé and Peter Effertz and Thierry Leblanc and Gerard M. Ancellet and Sophie M. Godin-Beekmann and Glen McConville and Richard Querel and Dan Smale and Marie-Renee DeBacker and Emmanuel Mahieu and Ralf Sussmann},
  journal = {Atmospheric chemistry and physics},
  year = {2026},
  month = may,
  doi = {10.5194/acp-26-7387-2026},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-7387-2026},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Updated global and regional trends of stratospheric ozone profiles
AU  - Viktoria Sofieva
AU  - Monika E. Szeląg
AU  - N. A. Kramarova
AU  - Robert Damadeo
AU  - Wolfgang Steinbrecht
AU  - Irina V. Petropavlovskikh
AU  - Corinne Vigouroux
AU  - Eliane Maillard Barras
AU  - Daniel J Zawada
AU  - Kleareti Tourpali
AU  - Stacey M. Frith
AU  - Jeannette Wild
AU  - Sean Davis
AU  - Carlo Arosio
AU  - Mark C. Weber
AU  - Alexei V. Rozanov
AU  - Brian Auffarth
AU  - Lucien Froidevaux
AU  - Ryan Fuller
AU  - Doug Degenstein
AU  - Kimberlee Robyn Dubé
AU  - Peter Effertz
AU  - Thierry Leblanc
AU  - Gerard M. Ancellet
AU  - Sophie M. Godin-Beekmann
AU  - Glen McConville
AU  - Richard Querel
AU  - Dan Smale
AU  - Marie-Renee DeBacker
AU  - Emmanuel Mahieu
AU  - Ralf Sussmann
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/05/28
JO  - Atmospheric chemistry and physics
DO  - 10.5194/acp-26-7387-2026
UR  - https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-7387-2026
AB  - We present an updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60°S–60°N latitude range using long-term ground-based and satellite climate data records, as well as simulations by chemistry-climate models. The trends are evaluated using the LOTUS (Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere) regression model. Analyses of satellite data confirm statistically significant positive ozone trends in the period 2000–2024 in the upper stratosphere of ~1–3% decade-1, with larger trends at mid-latitudes compared to the tropics. The trends are slightly positive or close to zero in the middle stratosphere, and mostly negative, −1–2% decade-1, in the lower stratosphere; but they are not statistically significant. The ozone trends are similar to previous analyses (2000–2020 trends). Ozone trends in 2000–2024 predicted by climate model simulations are in good agreement with combined satellite trends. In the upper stratosphere, models predict a slightly stronger ozone recovery than observations. In the lower stratosphere, both models and satellite observations report negative trends of in the tropics, while modelled ozone trends are slightly positive at mid-latitudes. Ozone profile trends over several stations estimated from ground-based records capture the same overall vertical pattern of ozone trends as merged gridded satellite datasets. Analyses of regional ozone trends in 2003–2024 using merged satellite datasets confirmed the previous observations of a longitudinal structure in ozone trends in the NH mid-latitude stratosphere, with positive trends over Scandinavia and negative trends over Siberia. However, the magnitude of this dipole-like structure is reduced compared to previous analyses.
SN  - 1680-7316
SN  - 1680-7324
ER  -