A cross-sectional analysis and forward projection of China's gallbladder and biliary-tract cancer burden: Insights from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study.
- 1Department of Surgical Oncology, Shaanxi Provincial People's Hospital, Xi'an, Shaanxi, People's Republic of China.
Abstract
Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) remains highly lethal. We examined 32-year epidemiological trends in China and projected outcomes to 2050. Using 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data, we extracted annual GBTC incident and prevalent cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 1990 to 2021, stratified by sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI). The age-standardized rates (ASRs) were calculated, and ARIMA models forecast 2050 incidence and mortality. Globally, GBTC risk rises after age 60 and correlates with SDI (R = 0.588). In China, cases increased from 17,077 in 1990 to 51,720 in 2021, raising the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) from 2.04 to 2.49/100,000 (+0.50% annually). Prevalent cases increased to 79,688 (age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) 3.77/100,000). Conversely, ASMR fell from 2.32 to 1.85/100,000 (-0.75%), and DALYs declined from 51.3 to 40.4/100,000 (-0.87%), driven by fewer years of life lost (YLL). Males drove incidence and prevalence. Projections suggest male incidence will keep rising until 2050, while female rates are projected to plateau; male mortality stays stable, and female mortality continues a gradual decline. Aging and rising SDI inflate GBTC incidence, yet improved care compresses mortality. Males carry an increasing share. Targeted prevention and early detection are critical to curb incidence and improve survival.
Related
- Obesity and Risk of High-Grade Dysplasia and Gallbladder Cancer Among Women with Gallstones in the Chile Biliary Longitudinal Study
- Prophylactic endoscopic transpapillary gallbladder stenting at fully covered self-expandable metal stent placement to prevent cholecystitis in malignant distal biliary obstruction: A multicenter prospective single-arm study protocol (PROTECT study)
- Are Gallbladder Abnormalities in Critically Ill Patients Clinically Relevant? Insights from the Medical Intensive Care Unit of a Medical Center
- Effect modification of gallbladder wall thickness on the association between fibrosis-4 index and high-risk colorectal adenoma in patients with gallbladder polyps: a retrospective cross-sectional study.
- Early-onset biliary tract cancers: clinical and molecular insights.
BibTeX
@article{yan2026crosssectional,
title = {{A cross-sectional analysis and forward projection of China's gallbladder and biliary-tract cancer burden: Insights from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study.}},
author = {Ke Yan and Cheng Li and Jia Ma and Yujie Liu and Youfu Tian and Jianfei Zhang},
journal = {Medicine},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1097/md.0000000000051008},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42888557},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - A cross-sectional analysis and forward projection of China's gallbladder and biliary-tract cancer burden: Insights from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study.
AU - Ke Yan
AU - Cheng Li
AU - Jia Ma
AU - Yujie Liu
AU - Youfu Tian
AU - Jianfei Zhang
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/01
JO - Medicine
DO - 10.1097/md.0000000000051008
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42888557
AB - Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) remains highly lethal. We examined 32-year epidemiological trends in China and projected outcomes to 2050. Using 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data, we extracted annual GBTC incident and prevalent cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 1990 to 2021, stratified by sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI). The age-standardized rates (ASRs) were calculated, and ARIMA models forecast 2050 incidence and mortality. Globally, GBTC risk rises after age 60 and correlates with SDI (R = 0.588). In China, cases increased from 17,077 in 1990 to 51,720 in 2021, raising the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) from 2.04 to 2.49/100,000 (+0.50% annually). Prevalent cases increased to 79,688 (age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) 3.77/100,000). Conversely, ASMR fell from 2.32 to 1.85/100,000 (-0.75%), and DALYs declined from 51.3 to 40.4/100,000 (-0.87%), driven by fewer years of life lost (YLL). Males drove incidence and prevalence. Projections suggest male incidence will keep rising until 2050, while female rates are projected to plateau; male mortality stays stable, and female mortality continues a gradual decline. Aging and rising SDI inflate GBTC incidence, yet improved care compresses mortality. Males carry an increasing share. Targeted prevention and early detection are critical to curb incidence and improve survival.
SN - 0304-5412
SN - 1536-5964
ER -