Terminal instability of the Solar System triggered by stochastic solar mass loss
Abstract
From its birth, celestial mechanics has been deeply intertwined with the question of the Solar System's dynamical stability. For the inner planets, this question is now statistically settled: Mercury's orbit carries a ∼1% chance of destabilization before the Sun leaves the main sequence. The outer Solar System has seemed more secure, with its intrinsic dynamical lifetime estimated at ∼1018 years. Even accounting for the Sun's mass loss and stellar flybys, the orbital architecture of the giant planets had been expected to persist for ∼100 Gyr. Here we show that these estimates rest on the assumption that solar mass loss is smooth. The recently measured white dwarf recoil demands asymmetric mass loss that is most readily attributed to discrete, independently directed ejections that impulsively perturb stellar motion. As the Sun sheds its envelope in such parcels, the planets' orbits random-walk with amplitude set by the mass-loss granularity. At a coarseness corresponding to observationally permitted kicks, this stochastic forcing restructures the outer Solar System concurrently with the Sun's death. In particular, our numerical experiments reveal that orbit crossings can commence on the red giant branch, with ∼40% of realizations undergoing disruption or violent scattering before the white dwarf forms and ∼90% self-destructing within 3 Gyr. The outer Solar System's dynamical lifetime thus collapses from 1018 years to approximately a gigayear after white dwarf formation.
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BibTeX
@misc{batygin2026terminal,
title = {{Terminal instability of the Solar System triggered by stochastic solar mass loss}},
author = {Konstantin Batygin and Jim Fuller and Fred C. Adams},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.12494},
eprint = {2609.12494},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.12494},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Terminal instability of the Solar System triggered by stochastic solar mass loss
AU - Konstantin Batygin
AU - Jim Fuller
AU - Fred C. Adams
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/11
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.12494
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.12494
AB - From its birth, celestial mechanics has been deeply intertwined with the question of the Solar System's dynamical stability. For the inner planets, this question is now statistically settled: Mercury's orbit carries a ∼1% chance of destabilization before the Sun leaves the main sequence. The outer Solar System has seemed more secure, with its intrinsic dynamical lifetime estimated at ∼10^18 years. Even accounting for the Sun's mass loss and stellar flybys, the orbital architecture of the giant planets had been expected to persist for ∼100 Gyr. Here we show that these estimates rest on the assumption that solar mass loss is smooth. The recently measured white dwarf recoil demands asymmetric mass loss that is most readily attributed to discrete, independently directed ejections that impulsively perturb stellar motion. As the Sun sheds its envelope in such parcels, the planets' orbits random-walk with amplitude set by the mass-loss granularity. At a coarseness corresponding to observationally permitted kicks, this stochastic forcing restructures the outer Solar System concurrently with the Sun's death. In particular, our numerical experiments reveal that orbit crossings can commence on the red giant branch, with ∼40% of realizations undergoing disruption or violent scattering before the white dwarf forms and ∼90% self-destructing within 3 Gyr. The outer Solar System's dynamical lifetime thus collapses from 10^18 years to approximately a gigayear after white dwarf formation.
ER -