Longitudinal Data on Chinese Children Suggest That Cutoff Values for Defining Premyopia Should Be Age- and Location-Specific
4 affiliations
- 1Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
- 2School of Optometry, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China
- 3Research Centre for SHARP Vision, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China
- 4Centre for Eye and Vision Research, Hong Kong, China
Abstract
Purpose: The International Myopia Institute definition for premyopia includes a spherical equivalent refraction (SER) range of greater than −0.50 to +0.75 diopters (D), based largely on data from North American children. Whether this range is appropriate for children in other regions is uncertain.
Methods: We pooled individual-level longitudinal data from three prospective studies of children in southern China: the Guangzhou Twin Eye Study, the Guangzhou Longitudinal Outdoor Activity Study, and the Zengcheng School Myopia Study. Children aged 6 to 12 years who were nonmyopic at baseline and had at least two follow-up visits were included.
Results: Of the 6550 children included (45.5% girls), mean (SD) baseline age was 7.98 (2.03) years, and median follow-up was 3.0 (interquartile range, 2.0–5.0) years. During follow-up, 2587 children (39.5%) developed myopia. The optimal baseline SER for predicting future myopia varied systematically by baseline age and follow-up duration: thresholds became more hyperopic with longer follow-up and less hyperopic with older baseline age. For predicting myopia over approximately 3 to 5 years, the optimal SER cutoff was around +1.00 D for children aged 6 to 7 years, +0.75 D for those aged 8 to 9 years, and from +0.37 D to +0.75 D for those aged 10 to 12 years. The model area under the curve ranged from 0.791 to 0.958.
Conclusions: The optimal SER cutoff for predicting future myopia onset depends on age and population. In Chinese children, +1.00 D is a more appropriate cutoff value for defining premyopia among children in the early years of primary school.
Related
- Longitudinal Changes in Choroidal Thickness Across the Eye in Young Children With Premyopia.
- Location-specific Longitudinal Patterns of Subcortical and Lobar Cerebral Microhemorrhages in Preclinical Alzheimer Disease
- Dying in the Desired Location—Findings From the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging
- Defining and predicting outcomes of a work-injuries rehabilitation program through multivariate baseline phenotypes and longitudinal modeling
- Diverging Trends in Treated In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest in Intensive Care Units and General Wards Using Location-Specific Patient-Days
BibTeX
@article{han2026longitudinal,
title = {{Longitudinal Data on Chinese Children Suggest That Cutoff Values for Defining Premyopia Should Be Age- and Location-Specific}},
author = {Xiaotong Han and Jiaqing Zhang and Ling Jin and Ian G. Morgan and Shiran Zhang and Yin Hu and Decai Wang and Yangfa Zeng and Mingguang He and Xiaohu Ding},
journal = {Investigative Ophthalmology \& Visual Science},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1167/iovs.67.12.55},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1167/iovs.67.12.55},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Longitudinal Data on Chinese Children Suggest That Cutoff Values for Defining Premyopia Should Be Age- and Location-Specific
AU - Xiaotong Han
AU - Jiaqing Zhang
AU - Ling Jin
AU - Ian G. Morgan
AU - Shiran Zhang
AU - Yin Hu
AU - Decai Wang
AU - Yangfa Zeng
AU - Mingguang He
AU - Xiaohu Ding
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/23
JO - Investigative Ophthalmology & Visual Science
DO - 10.1167/iovs.67.12.55
UR - https://doi.org/10.1167/iovs.67.12.55
AB - Purpose: The International Myopia Institute definition for premyopia includes a spherical equivalent refraction (SER) range of greater than −0.50 to +0.75 diopters (D), based largely on data from North American children. Whether this range is appropriate for children in other regions is uncertain. Methods: We pooled individual-level longitudinal data from three prospective studies of children in southern China: the Guangzhou Twin Eye Study, the Guangzhou Longitudinal Outdoor Activity Study, and the Zengcheng School Myopia Study. Children aged 6 to 12 years who were nonmyopic at baseline and had at least two follow-up visits were included. Results: Of the 6550 children included (45.5% girls), mean (SD) baseline age was 7.98 (2.03) years, and median follow-up was 3.0 (interquartile range, 2.0–5.0) years. During follow-up, 2587 children (39.5%) developed myopia. The optimal baseline SER for predicting future myopia varied systematically by baseline age and follow-up duration: thresholds became more hyperopic with longer follow-up and less hyperopic with older baseline age. For predicting myopia over approximately 3 to 5 years, the optimal SER cutoff was around +1.00 D for children aged 6 to 7 years, +0.75 D for those aged 8 to 9 years, and from +0.37 D to +0.75 D for those aged 10 to 12 years. The model area under the curve ranged from 0.791 to 0.958. Conclusions: The optimal SER cutoff for predicting future myopia onset depends on age and population. In Chinese children, +1.00 D is a more appropriate cutoff value for defining premyopia among children in the early years of primary school.
SN - 0146-0404
SN - 1552-5783
ER -