Early-onset digestive system cancers attributable to the GBD composite dietary risk in China, 1990-2023: burden, trends, and projections.
- 1Department of Anorectal Traditional Chinese Medicine, West China Hospital Sichuan University Jintang Hospital, Jintang First People's Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China.
- 2Department of Traditional Chinese Medicine Rehabilitation, Jintang Second People's Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China.
Abstract
Background
Digestive system cancers attributable to the aggregate dietary risk category defined by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study represent an important public health concern among Chinese adults aged 25-49 years. This study evaluated their burden, temporal trends, age-period-cohort patterns, and model-based projections.Methods
Data on deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to the GBD aggregate dietary risk category were obtained for Chinese individuals aged 25-49 years from 1990 to 2023. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze temporal trends, an age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to estimate age, period, and cohort effects, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to project the burden through 2050.Results
In 2023, these cancers were associated with 7,134 deaths and 349,764 DALYs. The burden among males was more than twice that among females. Age-standardized mortality and DALY rates declined significantly from 1990 to 2023 across all analyzed age and sex groups. The APC analysis showed lower relative risks in more recent periods and younger birth cohorts. The BAPC model projected substantial increases in the absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs by 2050, accompanied by increases in the corresponding age-standardized rates.Conclusion
Although age-standardized mortality and DALY rates declined from 1990 to 2023, the BAPC model projected increases in both the absolute burden and age-standardized rates of digestive system cancers attributable to the aggregate dietary risk category through 2050. These findings represent conditional model-based projections and support continued attention to sex-specific dietary-risk prevention and control strategies.
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BibTeX
@article{li2026earlyonset,
title = {{Early-onset digestive system cancers attributable to the GBD composite dietary risk in China, 1990-2023: burden, trends, and projections.}},
author = {Ping Li and Xiao Tong},
journal = {Frontiers in medicine},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.3389/fmed.2026.1972611},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42908840},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Early-onset digestive system cancers attributable to the GBD composite dietary risk in China, 1990-2023: burden, trends, and projections.
AU - Ping Li
AU - Xiao Tong
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/07
JO - Frontiers in medicine
DO - 10.3389/fmed.2026.1972611
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42908840
AB - Background Digestive system cancers attributable to the aggregate dietary risk category defined by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study represent an important public health concern among Chinese adults aged 25-49 years. This study evaluated their burden, temporal trends, age-period-cohort patterns, and model-based projections.Methods Data on deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to the GBD aggregate dietary risk category were obtained for Chinese individuals aged 25-49 years from 1990 to 2023. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze temporal trends, an age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to estimate age, period, and cohort effects, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to project the burden through 2050.Results In 2023, these cancers were associated with 7,134 deaths and 349,764 DALYs. The burden among males was more than twice that among females. Age-standardized mortality and DALY rates declined significantly from 1990 to 2023 across all analyzed age and sex groups. The APC analysis showed lower relative risks in more recent periods and younger birth cohorts. The BAPC model projected substantial increases in the absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs by 2050, accompanied by increases in the corresponding age-standardized rates.Conclusion Although age-standardized mortality and DALY rates declined from 1990 to 2023, the BAPC model projected increases in both the absolute burden and age-standardized rates of digestive system cancers attributable to the aggregate dietary risk category through 2050. These findings represent conditional model-based projections and support continued attention to sex-specific dietary-risk prevention and control strategies.
SN - 2296-858X
ER -