Abrupt reproductive responses to weather and shifting climatic signals across thermal contexts in trees
Abstract
Large inter-annual variation in tree seed production is widespread and closely linked to weather. Yet, we know little about the shape of these relationships, their dependence on resources, or their spatial consistency. We fitted boosted regression trees (eight species; 6,491 population-level observations; 352 sites), using prior seeding as proxy for resource status. Predictive performance ranged from rCV = 0.33 to 0.72, yet climatic signals emerged in most species. Non-linear responses to weather were common, often showing sharp transitions over narrow climatic ranges. Prior seeding was influential and frequently modified weather responses, with species ranging from predominantly climatically controlled to strongly resource-dependent. Leading predictors generally remained influential across sites within species, but their strength or relative importance shifted along a gradient from warmer, less thermally variable to colder, more variable sites. Consequently, small climatic shifts may coincide with large changes in reproduction, with the magnitude depending on prior seeding and climatic context.
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BibTeX
@misc{foest2026abrupt,
title = {{Abrupt reproductive responses to weather and shifting climatic signals across thermal contexts in trees}},
author = {Jessie Josepha Foest and Emilie Fleurot and Maria Bogdańska and Jakub Szymkowiak and Michał Bogdziewicz},
howpublished = {EcoEvoRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.32942/x2h40n},
url = {https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/view/15625/},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Abrupt reproductive responses to weather and shifting climatic signals across thermal contexts in trees
AU - Jessie Josepha Foest
AU - Emilie Fleurot
AU - Maria Bogdańska
AU - Jakub Szymkowiak
AU - Michał Bogdziewicz
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/23
PB - EcoEvoRxiv
DO - 10.32942/x2h40n
UR - https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/view/15625/
AB - Large inter-annual variation in tree seed production is widespread and closely linked to weather. Yet, we know little about the shape of these relationships, their dependence on resources, or their spatial consistency. We fitted boosted regression trees (eight species; 6,491 population-level observations; 352 sites), using prior seeding as proxy for resource status. Predictive performance ranged from rCV = 0.33 to 0.72, yet climatic signals emerged in most species. Non-linear responses to weather were common, often showing sharp transitions over narrow climatic ranges. Prior seeding was influential and frequently modified weather responses, with species ranging from predominantly climatically controlled to strongly resource-dependent. Leading predictors generally remained influential across sites within species, but their strength or relative importance shifted along a gradient from warmer, less thermally variable to colder, more variable sites. Consequently, small climatic shifts may coincide with large changes in reproduction, with the magnitude depending on prior seeding and climatic context.
ER -