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Peer-reviewedCC BYEcological Indicators

Ecosystem stability trajectories identify mangrove conservation priorities in China

  • Junjie Wang1
  • Haixu Hu2
  • Longda Tan3
  • Haoli Xiang4
  • Hongming Yao5
  • Wenxiu Gao3
  • Guofeng Wu3
5 affiliations
  1. 1College of Life Sciences and Oceanography, Shenzhen University, 518060 Shenzhen, China; MNR Key Laboratory for Geo-Environmental Monitoring of Great Bay Area & Guangdong Key Laboratory of Urban Informatics, Shenzhen University, 518060 Shenzhen, China
  2. 2College of Life Sciences and Oceanography, Shenzhen University, 518060 Shenzhen, China
  3. 3MNR Key Laboratory for Geo-Environmental Monitoring of Great Bay Area & Guangdong Key Laboratory of Urban Informatics, Shenzhen University, 518060 Shenzhen, China; School of Architecture & Urban Planning, Shenzhen University, 518060 Shenzhen, China
  4. 4College of Life Sciences and Oceanography, Shenzhen University, 518060 Shenzhen, China; MNR Key Laboratory for Geo-Environmental Monitoring of Great Bay Area & Guangdong Key Laboratory of Urban Informatics, Shenzhen University, 518060 Shenzhen, China; Corresponding author at: College of Life Sciences and Oceanography, Shenzhen University, 518060 Shenzhen, China.
  5. 5Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 518055 Shenzhen, China
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Abstract

Assessing mangrove ecosystem stability across space and time remains challenging due to the multidimensional nature of ecological structure and function and the lack of integrative indicators. Here, we developed a Mangrove Ecosystem Stability Index (MESI) based on multiple remote sensing indicators to quantify the spatiotemporal dynamics of mangroves across China from 2000 to 2021. During this period, mangrove forests expanded by 38.5%, largely through the conversion of aquaculture ponds and water bodies under active restoration programs, while the mean MESI increased from 0.49 to 0.55. Bayesian models revealed scale-dependent drivers of stability, with soil organic carbon dominating at the national scale and urbanization intensity and population density shaping patterns at provincial and reserve scales. Spatiotemporal trajectory analysis showed that over 55% of China's mangroves remained stable, with positive changes (23%) slightly exceeding declines (22%). Integrating stability trajectories with spatial prioritization identified 32% of mangroves outside current reserves as high-priority conservation areas, particularly in Guangxi, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, and Hainan. These findings provide a scalable framework for linking ecosystem stability assessment with conservation planning to support adaptive mangrove management under increasing climatic and anthropogenic pressures.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{wang2026ecosystem,
  title = {{Ecosystem stability trajectories identify mangrove conservation priorities in China}},
  author = {Junjie Wang and Haixu Hu and Longda Tan and Haoli Xiang and Hongming Yao and Wenxiu Gao and Guofeng Wu},
  journal = {Ecological Indicators},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115657},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115657},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Ecosystem stability trajectories identify mangrove conservation priorities in China
AU  - Junjie Wang
AU  - Haixu Hu
AU  - Longda Tan
AU  - Haoli Xiang
AU  - Hongming Yao
AU  - Wenxiu Gao
AU  - Guofeng Wu
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/30
JO  - Ecological Indicators
DO  - 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115657
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115657
AB  - Assessing mangrove ecosystem stability across space and time remains challenging due to the multidimensional nature of ecological structure and function and the lack of integrative indicators. Here, we developed a Mangrove Ecosystem Stability Index (MESI) based on multiple remote sensing indicators to quantify the spatiotemporal dynamics of mangroves across China from 2000 to 2021. During this period, mangrove forests expanded by 38.5%, largely through the conversion of aquaculture ponds and water bodies under active restoration programs, while the mean MESI increased from 0.49 to 0.55. Bayesian models revealed scale-dependent drivers of stability, with soil organic carbon dominating at the national scale and urbanization intensity and population density shaping patterns at provincial and reserve scales. Spatiotemporal trajectory analysis showed that over 55% of China's mangroves remained stable, with positive changes (23%) slightly exceeding declines (22%). Integrating stability trajectories with spatial prioritization identified 32% of mangroves outside current reserves as high-priority conservation areas, particularly in Guangxi, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, and Hainan. These findings provide a scalable framework for linking ecosystem stability assessment with conservation planning to support adaptive mangrove management under increasing climatic and anthropogenic pressures.
SN  - 1470-160X
SN  - 1872-7034
ER  -