The role of feedback in the low-prevalence effect: a meta-analysis of criterion shifts in visual search
- 1Department of Psychology, Lehigh University, Chandler-Ullmann Hall Room 120, 17 Memorial Drive East, Bethlehem, PA 18015 USA
Abstract
In high-stakes visual search tasks, such as reading a medical image or screening luggage at an airport security checkpoint, targets are often rare, leading to disproportionately high miss rates—a phenomenon known as the low-prevalence effect (LPE). While the LPE is traditionally attributed to conservative shifts in decision criterion (c), recent research on prevalence-induced concept change (PICC) suggests that low prevalence can lead to liberal decision criterion shifts in certain contexts. We propose that trial-level performance feedback is a critical mechanism governing these divergent outcomes. We conducted a meta-analysis of 62 effects from 29 publications, using robust variance estimation (RVE) to account for statistical dependencies. Our results confirm a large and reliable conservative criterion shift under low-prevalence visual search conditions, with no consistent effect on sensitivity (d’). Critically, meta-regression revealed that trial-level feedback significantly moderated the magnitude of these shifts; the presence of immediate feedback amplified the LPE, whereas its absence mitigated it. Additionally, the magnitude of the shift was tied to the numerical difference in prevalence, but remained robust across variations in stimulus type, observer expertise, and time constraints. These findings suggest that trial-level feedback reinforces expectations of target scarcity, amplifying the conservative biases that drive the LPE. This resolves theoretical discrepancies between the LPE in visual search and PICC findings in categorization and highlights a potential “intervention paradox”: While generally intended to improve accuracy, standard trial-level feedback may unintentionally exacerbate misses in rare target detection.
Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1186/s41235-026-00747-5.
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BibTeX
@article{caruso2026role,
title = {{The role of feedback in the low-prevalence effect: a meta-analysis of criterion shifts in visual search}},
author = {Vincent D. Caruso and Gavin Q. Fox and Nancy B. Carlisle and Patrick H. Cox},
journal = {Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications},
year = {2026},
month = jul,
doi = {10.1186/s41235-026-00747-5},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s41235-026-00747-5},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - The role of feedback in the low-prevalence effect: a meta-analysis of criterion shifts in visual search
AU - Vincent D. Caruso
AU - Gavin Q. Fox
AU - Nancy B. Carlisle
AU - Patrick H. Cox
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/07/29
JO - Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications
DO - 10.1186/s41235-026-00747-5
UR - https://doi.org/10.1186/s41235-026-00747-5
AB - In high-stakes visual search tasks, such as reading a medical image or screening luggage at an airport security checkpoint, targets are often rare, leading to disproportionately high miss rates—a phenomenon known as the low-prevalence effect (LPE). While the LPE is traditionally attributed to conservative shifts in decision criterion (c), recent research on prevalence-induced concept change (PICC) suggests that low prevalence can lead to liberal decision criterion shifts in certain contexts. We propose that trial-level performance feedback is a critical mechanism governing these divergent outcomes. We conducted a meta-analysis of 62 effects from 29 publications, using robust variance estimation (RVE) to account for statistical dependencies. Our results confirm a large and reliable conservative criterion shift under low-prevalence visual search conditions, with no consistent effect on sensitivity (d’). Critically, meta-regression revealed that trial-level feedback significantly moderated the magnitude of these shifts; the presence of immediate feedback amplified the LPE, whereas its absence mitigated it. Additionally, the magnitude of the shift was tied to the numerical difference in prevalence, but remained robust across variations in stimulus type, observer expertise, and time constraints. These findings suggest that trial-level feedback reinforces expectations of target scarcity, amplifying the conservative biases that drive the LPE. This resolves theoretical discrepancies between the LPE in visual search and PICC findings in categorization and highlights a potential “intervention paradox”: While generally intended to improve accuracy, standard trial-level feedback may unintentionally exacerbate misses in rare target detection. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1186/s41235-026-00747-5.
SN - 2365-7464
ER -