Surprisingly normal? GW241011 and GW241110 in the context of hierarchical merger classification
Abstract
Uncovering the origins of merging binary black holes is a key goal in gravitational-wave astrophysics, but identifying the formation channel of a particular binary is complicated by imprecise measurements and uncertain theoretical predictions. While classification often involves computing metrics from an event's inferred properties, measurement precision varies across parameter space. Using the perhaps-surprising low masses of the hierarchical merger candidates GW241011 and GW241110 as a backdrop, we consider the classifiable distribution, which steps beyond detectability to assess what events may be correctly characterized as part of a population. Interpreting classification outcomes, and assessing the falsifiability of theoretical model predictions, are benefit by understanding the regions of parameter space that a priori enable---and do not enable---confident measurement. For hierarchical mergers, we demonstrate that mass ratio is the largest intrinsic driver of identification, while orbital inclination and signal-to-noise ratio are the key extrinsic factors. Further, we show GW241011 and GW241110 achieve classification metrics consistent with similar simulated hierarchical mergers. Model selection and classification require the context of measurement capacity, especially as catalogs offer growing numbers of events with seemingly unusual properties.
Related
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BibTeX
@misc{plunkett2026surprisingly,
title = {{Surprisingly normal? GW241011 and GW241110 in the context of hierarchical merger classification}},
author = {Cailin Plunkett and Michael Zevin and Salvatore Vitale},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.40774},
eprint = {2610.40774},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.40774},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Surprisingly normal? GW241011 and GW241110 in the context of hierarchical merger classification
AU - Cailin Plunkett
AU - Michael Zevin
AU - Salvatore Vitale
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/29
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.40774
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.40774
AB - Uncovering the origins of merging binary black holes is a key goal in gravitational-wave astrophysics, but identifying the formation channel of a particular binary is complicated by imprecise measurements and uncertain theoretical predictions. While classification often involves computing metrics from an event's inferred properties, measurement precision varies across parameter space. Using the perhaps-surprising low masses of the hierarchical merger candidates GW241011 and GW241110 as a backdrop, we consider the classifiable distribution, which steps beyond detectability to assess what events may be correctly characterized as part of a population. Interpreting classification outcomes, and assessing the falsifiability of theoretical model predictions, are benefit by understanding the regions of parameter space that a priori enable---and do not enable---confident measurement. For hierarchical mergers, we demonstrate that mass ratio is the largest intrinsic driver of identification, while orbital inclination and signal-to-noise ratio are the key extrinsic factors. Further, we show GW241011 and GW241110 achieve classification metrics consistent with similar simulated hierarchical mergers. Model selection and classification require the context of measurement capacity, especially as catalogs offer growing numbers of events with seemingly unusual properties.
ER -