Attribution of the most impactful heatwaves, cyclones and floods hitting Africa in the period 2019-2024 to climate change
Abstract
Extreme weather events are intensifying under climate change, with Africa among the most exposed and vulnerable regions. We analyze 33 of the most impactful heatwaves, floods, and cyclones that occurred between 2019 and 2024 using the analogue-based ClimaMeter approach. For each event, the method compares the temperature, precipitation and wind associated with circulation analogues of the event in an earlier (1950–1985) and a more recent (1987–2022) period of the ERA5 reanalysis, providing a circulation-conditioned estimate of how comparable weather situations have changed. The event list was built through an impact-based protocol combining AI-assisted retrieval, cross-verification with documentary sources, and expert validation by the author team. Nine of the ten heatwaves occurred in conditions about +0.6 to +1.6 °C warmer than comparable past situations. For rainfall, the picture is mixed: seven of the thirteen floods and five of the ten cyclones show precipitation increases of up to about +12 mm/day, whereas the others show decreases or no robust change. Six cyclones show stronger winds, by about +1 to +4 km/h. For most events, the analogues of the two periods sample different phases of ENSO, AMO or PDO, so that natural variability may contribute to the detected changes, especially for rainfall and wind. Compared with independent attribution studies available for seven events, our results agree for the Sahel heatwave and for two rainfall events, and differ or are not robust for the other four. Relative damages increase with hazard magnitude for floods but are otherwise only weakly related to either the hazard magnitude or the detected change, and the sample does not allow the roles of exposure and vulnerability to be quantified. These results add observation-based evidence on recent African extremes, robust for heat and more uncertain for rainfall, and support the need for strengthened early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, and targeted adaptation strategies.
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BibTeX
@article{faranda2026attribution,
title = {{Attribution of the most impactful heatwaves, cyclones and floods hitting Africa in the period 2019-2024 to climate change}},
author = {Davide Faranda and T. Alberti and E. Coppola and C. Lennard and J. Kimutai and M. Tanarhte and I. Diallo and F. Driouech and R. Barimalala},
journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2026.100967},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05846365v1},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Attribution of the most impactful heatwaves, cyclones and floods hitting Africa in the period 2019-2024 to climate change
AU - Davide Faranda
AU - T. Alberti
AU - E. Coppola
AU - C. Lennard
AU - J. Kimutai
AU - M. Tanarhte
AU - I. Diallo
AU - F. Driouech
AU - R. Barimalala
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/31
JO - Weather and Climate Extremes
DO - 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100967
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05846365v1
AB - Extreme weather events are intensifying under climate change, with Africa among the most exposed and vulnerable regions. We analyze 33 of the most impactful heatwaves, floods, and cyclones that occurred between 2019 and 2024 using the analogue-based ClimaMeter approach. For each event, the method compares the temperature, precipitation and wind associated with circulation analogues of the event in an earlier (1950–1985) and a more recent (1987–2022) period of the ERA5 reanalysis, providing a circulation-conditioned estimate of how comparable weather situations have changed. The event list was built through an impact-based protocol combining AI-assisted retrieval, cross-verification with documentary sources, and expert validation by the author team. Nine of the ten heatwaves occurred in conditions about +0.6 to +1.6 °C warmer than comparable past situations. For rainfall, the picture is mixed: seven of the thirteen floods and five of the ten cyclones show precipitation increases of up to about +12 mm/day, whereas the others show decreases or no robust change. Six cyclones show stronger winds, by about +1 to +4 km/h. For most events, the analogues of the two periods sample different phases of ENSO, AMO or PDO, so that natural variability may contribute to the detected changes, especially for rainfall and wind. Compared with independent attribution studies available for seven events, our results agree for the Sahel heatwave and for two rainfall events, and differ or are not robust for the other four. Relative damages increase with hazard magnitude for floods but are otherwise only weakly related to either the hazard magnitude or the detected change, and the sample does not allow the roles of exposure and vulnerability to be quantified. These results add observation-based evidence on recent African extremes, robust for heat and more uncertain for rainfall, and support the need for strengthened early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, and targeted adaptation strategies.
SN - 2212-0947
ER -