Forecasting winter wave height using decadal prediction of atmospheric indices over the Northeast Atlantic
Abstract
Forecasting wave height variability on a decadal timescale is important from many perspectives, including the anticipation of coastal hazards. We propose a hybrid prediction system for forecasting winter wave height, from the multi-annual to the decadal timescales, using decadal climate predictions and regression models. We focus on the Northeast Atlantic, where the variability of winter wave height is primarily controlled by two large-scale atmospheric indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the West Europe Pressure Anomaly (WEPA). Leveraging recent advances in prediction skills, decadal climate predictions of the NAO and WEPA are used as predictors of wave height. Hindcasts results over the period 1962-2024 demonstrate high skills for the western European coasts, especially for decadal variability, with NAO (WEPA) dominating predictability at the northernmost (southernmost) latitudes. Moreover, by implementing a multivariate linear regression model, a significant improvement in skill is observed between the two zones of influence of the NAO and the WEPA. The proposed methodology is generic and robust, and could be applied to other ocean regions where multi-annual to decadal variability in wave height is large. This approach also forms the foundation of a climate service that could be developed for coastal managers to better anticipate coastal hazards across relevant timescales.
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BibTeX
@article{raymond2026forecasting,
title = {{Forecasting winter wave height using decadal prediction of atmospheric indices over the Northeast Atlantic}},
author = {Théodore Raymond and Bruno Castelle and Didier Swingedouw and Joanne Couallier and Ramdane Alkama},
journal = {Climate services},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100723},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05751297v1},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Forecasting winter wave height using decadal prediction of atmospheric indices over the Northeast Atlantic
AU - Théodore Raymond
AU - Bruno Castelle
AU - Didier Swingedouw
AU - Joanne Couallier
AU - Ramdane Alkama
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/16
JO - Climate services
DO - 10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100723
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05751297v1
AB - Forecasting wave height variability on a decadal timescale is important from many perspectives, including the anticipation of coastal hazards. We propose a hybrid prediction system for forecasting winter wave height, from the multi-annual to the decadal timescales, using decadal climate predictions and regression models. We focus on the Northeast Atlantic, where the variability of winter wave height is primarily controlled by two large-scale atmospheric indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the West Europe Pressure Anomaly (WEPA). Leveraging recent advances in prediction skills, decadal climate predictions of the NAO and WEPA are used as predictors of wave height. Hindcasts results over the period 1962-2024 demonstrate high skills for the western European coasts, especially for decadal variability, with NAO (WEPA) dominating predictability at the northernmost (southernmost) latitudes. Moreover, by implementing a multivariate linear regression model, a significant improvement in skill is observed between the two zones of influence of the NAO and the WEPA. The proposed methodology is generic and robust, and could be applied to other ocean regions where multi-annual to decadal variability in wave height is large. This approach also forms the foundation of a climate service that could be developed for coastal managers to better anticipate coastal hazards across relevant timescales.
SN - 2405-8807
ER -