Early Warning Signals Can Vanish or Amplify: Dimensionality in Complex Systems
Abstract
Early warning signals (EWS), such as increasing variance and autocorrelation, are widely used to anticipate critical transitions associated with saddle-node bifurcations. However, real-world systems are often high-dimensional and multiscale, potentially altering the classical behavior of EWS. Here, we investigate how dimensionality, inertia, and red noise influence the detectability of EWS prior to tipping points. We show that when observations are not aligned with the critical direction, stable dynamics in orthogonal directions can mask EWS until very near the bifurcation. We further demonstrate that second-order dynamics with damping modify the autocorrelation structure and may either enhance or reduce signatures of critical slowing down. Finally, we study how colored noise influences EWS. Our results show that the presence and strength of EWS are not universal properties of tipping systems but depend critically on system geometry and stochastic forcing, implying that the absence of detectable EWS does not necessarily rule out an approaching critical transition.
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BibTeX
@misc{ditlevsen2026early,
title = {{Early Warning Signals Can Vanish or Amplify: Dimensionality in Complex Systems}},
author = {Susanne Ditlevsen and Peter Ditlevsen},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.01164},
eprint = {2609.01164},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.01164},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Early Warning Signals Can Vanish or Amplify: Dimensionality in Complex Systems
AU - Susanne Ditlevsen
AU - Peter Ditlevsen
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/01
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.01164
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.01164
AB - Early warning signals (EWS), such as increasing variance and autocorrelation, are widely used to anticipate critical transitions associated with saddle-node bifurcations. However, real-world systems are often high-dimensional and multiscale, potentially altering the classical behavior of EWS. Here, we investigate how dimensionality, inertia, and red noise influence the detectability of EWS prior to tipping points. We show that when observations are not aligned with the critical direction, stable dynamics in orthogonal directions can mask EWS until very near the bifurcation. We further demonstrate that second-order dynamics with damping modify the autocorrelation structure and may either enhance or reduce signatures of critical slowing down. Finally, we study how colored noise influences EWS. Our results show that the presence and strength of EWS are not universal properties of tipping systems but depend critically on system geometry and stochastic forcing, implying that the absence of detectable EWS does not necessarily rule out an approaching critical transition.
ER -