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Peer-reviewedCC BYNature Communications

Context-specific life cycle emissions pathways for EU buildings and construction

  • Nicolas Alaux1
  • N Bechstedt1
  • Xiaoyang Zhong2,3
  • Alessio Mastrucci2
  • Delphine Ramon4
  • Dominik Maierhofer1
  • Karen Allacker5
  • Alexander Passer6
  • Martin Röck4,7
7 affiliations
  1. 1Graz University of Technology, Institute of Structural Design, Working Group Sustainable Construction, Graz, Austria
  2. 2Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
  3. 3Tsinghua University, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Institute of Environment and Ecology, Shenzhen, China
  4. 4KU Leuven, Faculty of Engineering Science, Department of Architecture, Leuven, Belgium
  5. 5KU Leuven, Faculty of Engineering Science, Department of Architecture, Leuven, Belgium. [email protected]
  6. 6Graz University of Technology, Institute of Structural Design, Working Group Sustainable Construction, Graz, Austria. [email protected]
  7. 7RISE Institute for Regenerative Spatial Systems Science, Vienna, Austria
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Abstract

The European Union aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent by 2030 relative to 1990 and achieve climate neutrality by 2050. Yet, translating these targets into pathways for buildings and construction is challenging across diverse national contexts. We model building stocks for the twenty-seven Member States of the European Union and evaluate 4096 life cycle emissions scenarios, considering national capacities. Here we show that, over 2020-2050, achieving these targets would require avoiding 8.53 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, approximately ten years of emissions at 2020 levels. Mostly relying on improving energy efficiency and material production would exceed national capacities by 2.72-billion-ton, 32 percent of the required reduction. A combined approach that also reduces per capita space demand, applies circularity measures, and uses bio‑based materials could achieve an additional 2.19 billion tons within national capacities. For each country, we identify the strategies that maximize projected reductions to inform policy design.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{alaux2026contextspecific,
  title = {{Context-specific life cycle emissions pathways for EU buildings and construction}},
  author = {Nicolas Alaux and N Bechstedt and Xiaoyang Zhong and Alessio Mastrucci and Delphine Ramon and Dominik Maierhofer and Karen Allacker and Alexander Passer and Martin Röck},
  journal = {Nature Communications},
  year = {2026},
  month = may,
  doi = {10.1038/s41467-026-73433-1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-73433-1},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Context-specific life cycle emissions pathways for EU buildings and construction
AU  - Nicolas Alaux
AU  - N Bechstedt
AU  - Xiaoyang Zhong
AU  - Alessio Mastrucci
AU  - Delphine Ramon
AU  - Dominik Maierhofer
AU  - Karen Allacker
AU  - Alexander Passer
AU  - Martin Röck
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/05/25
JO  - Nature Communications
DO  - 10.1038/s41467-026-73433-1
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-73433-1
AB  - The European Union aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent by 2030 relative to 1990 and achieve climate neutrality by 2050. Yet, translating these targets into pathways for buildings and construction is challenging across diverse national contexts. We model building stocks for the twenty-seven Member States of the European Union and evaluate 4096 life cycle emissions scenarios, considering national capacities. Here we show that, over 2020-2050, achieving these targets would require avoiding 8.53 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, approximately ten years of emissions at 2020 levels. Mostly relying on improving energy efficiency and material production would exceed national capacities by 2.72-billion-ton, 32 percent of the required reduction. A combined approach that also reduces per capita space demand, applies circularity measures, and uses bio‑based materials could achieve an additional 2.19 billion tons within national capacities. For each country, we identify the strategies that maximize projected reductions to inform policy design.
SN  - 2041-1723
ER  -