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Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Mathematics

Food-System Stress Testing: Prediction Tasks Under Alternative Outcome Definitions

  • Feng An1
  • Shuai Ren2
  • Xuyang Liu2
  • Siyao Liu3
  • Jingwen Cui2
  1. 1School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
  2. 2School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
  3. 3Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
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Abstract

Food-system stress tests can misdirect warning and policy interpretation when current-state screening, prospective entry and post-entry escalation are treated as one problem. This study develops a task-specific framework that fixes each prediction origin, risk set, event window and outcome definition. It provides a unique conservative demand-capped allocation and a sufficient condition for module-input perturbations to preserve event membership. The empirical analysis uses precomputed fields for 218 countries in four six-step scenarios without executing the full operator architecture. Within this constructed system, origin-time disruption, exposure and buffer measures achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.835 for prospective Level-1 entry, versus 0.762 for initial score margin. Post-entry evidence was sparse: 81 of 135 Level-2 arrivals were same-step jumps, while a fixed three-step window contained 26 events from 11 countries. Added origin-time fields showed no stable improvement over Level-2 cutoff proximity. Reallocating 0.05 among component weights changed eligible origins from 156 to 319 and events from 17 to 59; outcome definitions therefore changed the estimand before model fitting. The framework supports internal stress testing, but performance does not establish real-world predictive validity. Operational use requires independent outcomes, externally fixed event definitions, scenario variation and longer follow-up.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{an2026foodsystem,
  title = {{Food-System Stress Testing: Prediction Tasks Under Alternative Outcome Definitions}},
  author = {Feng An and Shuai Ren and Xuyang Liu and Siyao Liu and Jingwen Cui},
  journal = {Mathematics},
  year = {2026},
  month = sep,
  doi = {10.3390/math14193441},
  url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/14/19/3441},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Food-System Stress Testing: Prediction Tasks Under Alternative Outcome Definitions
AU  - Feng An
AU  - Shuai Ren
AU  - Xuyang Liu
AU  - Siyao Liu
AU  - Jingwen Cui
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/22
JO  - Mathematics
DO  - 10.3390/math14193441
UR  - https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/14/19/3441
AB  - Food-system stress tests can misdirect warning and policy interpretation when current-state screening, prospective entry and post-entry escalation are treated as one problem. This study develops a task-specific framework that fixes each prediction origin, risk set, event window and outcome definition. It provides a unique conservative demand-capped allocation and a sufficient condition for module-input perturbations to preserve event membership. The empirical analysis uses precomputed fields for 218 countries in four six-step scenarios without executing the full operator architecture. Within this constructed system, origin-time disruption, exposure and buffer measures achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.835 for prospective Level-1 entry, versus 0.762 for initial score margin. Post-entry evidence was sparse: 81 of 135 Level-2 arrivals were same-step jumps, while a fixed three-step window contained 26 events from 11 countries. Added origin-time fields showed no stable improvement over Level-2 cutoff proximity. Reallocating 0.05 among component weights changed eligible origins from 156 to 319 and events from 17 to 59; outcome definitions therefore changed the estimand before model fitting. The framework supports internal stress testing, but performance does not establish real-world predictive validity. Operational use requires independent outcomes, externally fixed event definitions, scenario variation and longer follow-up.
SN  - 2227-7390
ER  -